The mood in equities is worsening but it’s not helping the US dollar.
The market is increasingly concerned that the US administration is shooting itself in the foot with a poor set of tariff policies that will chase money out of the country. Increasingly, market participants are looking for shelter in bonds and that has 10-year yields down 11 bps to 4.14% today.
The message here is is that if Trump goes wild on tariffs, the range breaks and we have a head-and-shoulders targeting 3.5%.
That’s the kind of thing that would cause some major pain in the US dollar, particularly against the yen.
