US March Empire manufacturing index -20.0 versus -1.50 estimate

• Prior month 5.7 (were expecting -1.0)
• Empire manufacturing for March -20.0 versus -1.5 estimate

Details from the report:

• Manufacturing in NY Contracts: General business conditions index fell to -20.0, indicating contraction.
• Declining Orders & Shipments: New orders dropped to -14.9, shipments fell to -8.5.
• Inventory Growth: Inventories index rose to 13.3, highest in over two years.
• Steady Unfilled Orders & Delivery Times: Unfilled orders unchanged, delivery times index at 1.0.
• Rising Prices: Prices paid index surged to 44.9, highest in two years; prices received rose to 22.4.
• Employment & Workweek Decline: Employee index at -4.1, workweek index at -2.5.
• Falling Optimism: Future business activity index declined to 12.7, with weak capital spending plans.
• Expectations Ahead: Input prices to remain high, supply availability to tighten.

From the Economic Research Advisor

“Manufacturing activity dropped significantly in New York State in
March. Input price increases climbed for a third straight month to
hit their fastest pace in more than two years. In addition, supply
availability is expected to contract and firms continued to grow less
optimistic about the future business outlook.”

Not a good comment from the NY Fed from not a great report. The report is a prelude to the national ISM indices. Meanwhile Retail sales – but for February were mostly better with the Control group which feeds into GDP rising by 1% vs 0.3% helping that release. Anecdotal evidence is the consumer is cutting back in March though. From the WSJ today.