US NAHB housing market index 29 vs 31 prior

For background, The NAHB Housing Market Index is a monthly survey of homebuilder sentiment published by the National Association of Home Builders. It’s released around mid-month at 10 am ET, usually the day before the government’s housing starts report, which makes it the earliest read on the US housing market each month.

The index is built from a survey of NAHB members, focused on builders of single-family homes. They rate three conditions: current sales of new homes, expected sales over the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers. The responses are combined into a headline index running from 0 to 100. A reading of 50 is the dividing line, with anything above it meaning more builders view conditions as good than poor. The traffic component historically runs well below the other two and rarely tops 50 even in strong markets. NAHB also publishes regional readings for the Northeast, Midwest, South and West as three-month moving averages.

In recent years the survey’s added questions on price cuts and sales incentives have become some of its most useful details. They show how much builders are discounting or buying down mortgage rates to keep homes moving, information the headline doesn’t capture.

The index is highly sensitive to mortgage rates and affordability, and it tends to lead housing starts and building permits. It rarely moves broader markets on its own, but it’s watched closely by homebuilder stocks and as an early signal for residential investment, a key swing factor in GDP. Builders’ commentary on construction costs, including lumber, materials and tariffs, also feeds into the inflation picture.