The weekly initial and continuing claims shows:
- Initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate. Prior week revised to 211K from 210K
- 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 207.75K versus 210.75K last week.
- Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.839M estimate.
- 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.839M vs 1.846M last week.
The dominant theme is a “low-hire, low-fire” . The data reflects stability in the labor market amid a low-firing backdrop combined with slowing hiring.
Low claims don’t mean the labor market is entirely healthy. Hiring can slow at the same time layoffs remain low, creating a market where people who have jobs keep them but people looking for work struggle to find new opportunities.
However this data is not reflective of a weakening labor market.
The stock remain lower with the NASDAQ -476 points and the downtown -645 points.
The US yields remain higher with the 10 year up 3.3 basis point at 4.354%. The 2-year is up 2 point basis points at 3.831% .
Crude oil remains elevated and trades above $110 at $110.52. The high has extended to $110.74. With oil continuing its move to the upside that will be the focus for traders. The spike price from March 9 reached $119.48.
