We get the ‘final’ Q2 US GDP report today but that’s generally not a market mover as now we’re just 4 days away from the end of Q3.

More important today are initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. I’d put claims at the top of the list.

Here is Parker Ross on claims, as he highlights a downward bias, which would boost the US dollar:

Things are set to get very interesting [this] week, as some wonkiness with the seasonal adjustment factors are likely to drive down the seasonally adjusted measures of initial and continuing claims toward 220k and 1,810k, respectively, even if there is no improvement in the underlying data.

He argues that seasonal adjustments are what are driving initial jobless claims, not necessarily the underlying data. However beyond September, the seasonal adjustments should work to elevate claims.

“The future path for breakeven claims suggests a bit more downside through month-end, before pivoting higher into year-end – most notably for continuing claims.”

As for durable goods, there have been some troubling signs in manufacturing PMIs lately and the consensus is for a 2.6% decline in the headline but that comes after a 9.8% rise last month on aircraft orders. Core orders are expected to be flat.

For more, see the economic data calendar.