Coinspeaker
US Recession Fears Rise, Will Bitcoin and Altcoins See Final Crash Before Uptrend?

Wall Street and the global crypto market are in panic as fears of a U.S. recession have increased significantly over the past week. The Trump tariff war and broader economic instability have contributed to a sharp sell-off in Bitcoin

BTC
$83 046

24h volatility:
4.5%

Market cap:
$1.65 T

Vol. 24h:
$57.14 B

and altcoins recently.

Some market analysts predict more pain ahead as Bitcoin aligns with the global M2 money supply.

US Recession Fears Lead to Major Crypto Market Panic

Top market analysts and research platforms are increasing estimates of an impending US recession as Trump escalates the tariff war, while the US Federal Reserve remains firm amidst persistent inflation.

Former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian has raised his U.S. recession probability estimate to 25-30%, up from just 10% earlier this year. Echoing similar sentiment, betting platform Polymarket now forecasts a 38% chance of an official recession declaration by the end of the year.

The crypto market has also experienced significant selling pressure as a result. Over the past week, the market has lost over $700 billion in investor wealth, causing panic as Bitcoin falls below $80,000.

Economist Alex Kruger commented on the potential for a market recovery, stating that the market could recover once Trump softens his stance on tariffs or shifts focus to tax cuts

Could Bitcoin See a Drop to $70,000 Next?

Earlier today, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $80,000, causing shockwaves throughout the broader crypto market.

Popular analyst Joe Consorti has shared a chart showing how BTC is converging with the global M2 money supply and is just $8K away from fully converging with it.

The chart below comparing Bitcoin to the Global M2 suggests that BTC may experience a final drop to $70,000 before continuing its upward trend.

During the previous bull runs of 2017 and 2021, BTC experienced an average correction of 35% before the major rally. So far in this cycle, BTC has corrected by 25%, indicating there may still be room for further decline based on historical trends.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has asked investors to be patient and not jump to buy the dips.

Is the Altcoins Party Over? 2025 has been a tough year for altcoin investors, with no relief in sight. Ethereum

ETH
$1 941

24h volatility:
3.4%

Market cap:
$234.16 B

Vol. 24h:
$33.92 B

, for example, fell below the crucial $2,000 support, paving the way for a potential drop to $1,500 and lower. Other altcoins have followed suit, pushing their year-to-date corrections to 35-40%.

This has led many to question whether the altcoin rally is over. However, market analyst Michael van de Poppe remains bullish, noting that similar corrections occurred in previous years, and a new rally from these levels could lead to even higher gains than in 2024.