- Prelim was 69.0
- Prior was 67.9
- Current conditions 63.3 vs 62.9 prelim (61.3 prior)
- Expectations 74.4 vs 73.0 prelim (72.1 prior)
- 1-year inflation 2.7% vs 2.7% prelim
- 5-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% prelim
The final revisions are rarely a market mover but the chart illustrates how this is a different picture than consumer confidence, which is nearing a breakdown.
A big part of the divergence is that the UMich survey is influenced by a massive amount of partisanship.
The comments in the survey also highlight politics:
Consumer sentiment extended its early-month climb, ultimately rising
more than 3% above August. This increase was seen across all education
groups and political affiliations. Furthermore, all five index
components gained, led by a 6% surge in one-year business expectations.
The expectations index is now 13% above a year ago and reflects greater
optimism across a broad swath of the population. While sentiment remains
below its historical average in part due to frustration over high
prices, consumers are fully aware that inflation has continued to slow.
Sentiment appears to be building some momentum as consumers’
expectations for the economy brighten. At the same time, many consumers
continue to report that their expectations hinge on the results of the
upcoming election. Relative to August, consumers across political
parties are increasingly expecting a Harris presidency, though about
two-thirds of Republicans still expect Trump to win.
Someone will be disappointed after November.
