US yields blow up once more, this time proper throughout the curve

It’s not looking good in the bond market right now.

There is an interesting contrast unfolding with UMich inflation expectations surging but market-based inflation expectations falling. The UMich ones are volatile but I fear that the market is thinking more about tumbling growth beyond the tariff shock and an administration that’s lost its focus on growth (or doesn’t understand the laws of economics).

US 10-year yields are now up 18 basis points on the day to 4.57%, well above where Trump got “yippy” and removed reciprocal tariffs. The market is evidently concluding that’s not enough, or that recent fiscal indications from the US are poor.