USD/JPY with a pointy drop decrease after crossing the 159.00 mark earlier

The Japanese yen currency just spiked higher across the board after stumbling following BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference. The price movement has similar characteristics to a “rate check” call from the MOF, similar to previous episodes we have seen back in 2024 and 2022.

For some context, the last reported “rate check” was back in the middle of July 2024, just before Tokyo authorities stepped in to buy up the currency. And before that, the previous “rate check” was in 14 September 2022 and that was a week before actual intervention took place.

The “rate check” calls were all meant to give the market a bit of fair warning before they actually intervened after. So, we have some precedence of what to expect next with the Japanese yen. The only question is when.

The one in July 2024 saw the MOF step in with actual intervention in just a matter of days whereas the one in 2022 took about a week.

USD/JPY was trading up to around 159.22 after BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference earlier but was quickly sent lower to 157.33 before recovering to about 158.20 at the moment of writing. It seems that Tokyo officials aren’t going to risk it getting anywhere near 160.00 before stepping in.

If you’re still trading yen pairs at the moment, just be wary that intervention risks have now heightened dramatically after this move here.

Personally, this doesn’t look to be actual intervention as any real hit by Tokyo would result in a much larger and stronger move. So, my take is that it’s a “rate check” and we should get some official sources noting that in the hours to come.