USDCAD technicals
Tariff concerns tied to tomorrow’s “Liberation Day” are keeping upward pressure on USDCAD, and the technicals are aligning with that narrative.
After finding strong support late last week near the 100-day moving average at 1.4269 after breaking below and failing —it is also a key swing area dating back to December—the pair rebounded sharply. That bounce held through the weekend, and yesterday’s rise and today’s up and down consolidation, has seen price climb above – and stay above – both the 200-bar and 100-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart. That level is now acting as support at 1.4318 and 1.4344 respectively.
With the bullish bias reinforced by the successful defense of these technical zones, buyers are now targeting the 1.4448–1.4471 resistance range, which has repeatedly capped price since January – except on tariff related news breaks. A break above that zone would open the door for further upside momentum.
On the downside, it would take a move below he 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.4247 to tilt the bias back to the downside.
Key levels:
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Support: 1.43474 (100-bar MA H4), 1.4321 (200-bar MA H4), 1.4269 (100-day MA/swing zone), 1.4238 swing level
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Resistance: 1.4403 (last week’s high), 1.4448–1.4471 (range top), 1.4525, 1.4539
A failure back below 1.4347 would weaken the short-term bullish case, but for now, the momentum favors further upside as long as price holds above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.
