The USDCAD is stretching higher, and in the process has moved back above a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937. That break tilts the bias more to the upside, with both price action and technicals aligned in favor of the buyers.
Fundamentally, Canadian GDP came in slightly stronger than expected, which may be offering some support, but this move is being driven more by the trend and technical momentum.
Since bottoming near 1.3670 last Monday, the pair has been in a steady grind higher, characterized by modest, shallow corrections—a sign of a market that remains comfortably bid. Importantly, both Friday and Monday saw buyers lean against the 61.8% retracement at 1.3888, reinforcing that level as a solid risk-defining floor.
Now that the price is back above the 1.3924–1.3937 swing area, that zone becomes the new barometer for buyers vs. sellers:
- Stay above = buyers remain in control, with upside targets at 1.3971 and 1.3984
- Move back below = momentum starts to fade, and the bias shifts more neutral to bearish
For shorter-term clues, watch the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 5-minute chart (see blue and green lines on the chart below). Since last Tuesday, the price has traded mostly above the 200-bar MA, with only brief dips below. Those dips have lacked follow-through, and buyers have consistently stepped back in.
If that changes— and the price breaks below the 200-bar MA with momentum—it would signal that a deeper corrective phase may be underway.
Bottom line:
The trend is higher, and buyers remain in control—but they need to hold above 1.3924 to keep the momentum intact.
