USDCAD technicals
The USDCAD extended higher yesterday and again earlier today, but both rallies have stalled just ahead of a key resistance confluence. The area of interest includes:
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The 200-day moving average, currently near 1.40111
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The swing area resistance between 1.4009 and 1.4027
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Today’s high stopped at 1.40157 before rotating back lower
This zone has now rejected buyers on two separate occasions, reinforcing its role as a critical barrier that bulls must break to extend the upside bias. A clean move above 1.4027 would open the door toward the 38.2%% retracement of the move down from the March high at 1.40525, with other key resistance around the 50% and swing area between 1.4146–1.41836.
On the downside, the initial support now comes in near 1.3978, where the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart lines up with the old swing high from April 15. Holding above that level keeps the rebound and short term bullish bias intact. A move below it, however, could trigger a deeper correction down to 1.389172 1.3904 swing area.
Key technical levels:
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Resistance: 1.4009–1.4027 (200-day MA + swing), 1.40525 (38.2% retracement), 1.4146 to 1.41836 (50% and swing area)
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Support: 1.3978 (4H 200-bar MA/old high from April 15), 1.38917 – 1.3904 (swing area)
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Bias: Neutral to bullish above 1.3978; stronger bullish bias only above 1.4027 and then the 38.2% retracement at 1.40525
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