The USDCAD is caught between rock-solid support and formidable resistance, and the market is waiting for one side to crack.

On the downside, buyers continue to defend the 1.3762/1.3759–1.3749 zone—a powerful confluence of the 38.2% retracement, the rising 200-hour MA, and a well-defined swing high area. On the topside, sellers are standing firm at 1.3810, where the 100-day MA (Friday’s ceiling) aligns with the 100-hour MA, creating a brick wall of resistance.

This standoff is clear: stay below 1.3810 and the bias leans lower, with a break of the support cluster opening the door toward 1.3726 (50% retracement) and 1.36908 (61.8%).

A push above 1.3810 would flip the script, forcing shorts to cover and targeting 1.3860 and 1.3890. For now, it’s a textbook battle of levels—and traders are watching for the first clean break to set the tone.

Key levels: