The USDCHF continues to trade within a narrow range, fluctuating between 0.8400 and 0.85368 since August 20 (a month ago now). The majority of price action has been contained within this range, with brief extremes on either side that quickly fizzled out. Key technical levels include the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.8476 and the 200-hour moving average just below at 0.8475. The 100-hour moving average is slightly lower at 0.8460.
In recent trading, the price has repeatedly tested the 0.8460 level, only to bounce back upwards. The rotation higher has brought the price into a swing area between 0.8488 and 0.8500, with the high stalling at 0.84985. Despite the Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point rate cut, the USDCHF remains within its 137-pip trading range that has held sway over the past month.
For now, the key level to watch is 0.8475, where the 100-bar and 200-hour moving averages converge. A sustained move above this level could indicate bullish sentiment, while a drop below could signal bearishness. Currently, buyers are attempting to gain traction. Can they push the price above 0.8500? If so the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the August high comes in at 0.8517, the falling 200 bar moving average of the four hour chart comes in at 0.85287, and the high of the red box comes in at 0.85368.
