USDCHF Technical Analysis: the SNB retains the established order, deal with US knowledge subsequent

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board in the first part of the week but managed to erase all the losses
yesterday with an incredible rally. We haven’t got any catalyst for the move
but there was no reason for the weakness at the start of the week either.

Fed speakers this week
haven’t offered anything new and just reiterated that the labour market
weakness “forced” them to move towards neutral. This means that if we were to
get stronger labour market data, the Fed could start to turn more hawkish again
and we might not get another cut in October or December.

Looking ahead, we have the
US Jobless Claims report today and good data will likely give the greenback
another boost. Weak data, on the other hand, could lead to a pullback. The
biggest event will be the NFP report next Friday.

On the CHF side, the SNB today left interest rates steady and kept
everything mostly unchanged. SNB’s President Schlegel didn’t offer any forward
guidance but he did say that the bar to cut rates further is very high and
negative inflation prints in the short-term won’t be enough.

The last Swiss inflation
prints rebounded a bit but there’s a long way to go before breaching their 2% inflation
limit. So, this leaves the CHF trading mostly based on the strength and
weakness of other currencies.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF made a new 2025 low on the Fed’s decision but eventually erased
all the losses and rallied into the 0.7970 level. The buyers remain in control
for now and they will likely keep targeting the major downward trendline near the 0.80 handle. The sellers,
on the other hand, will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above
it to position for a drop back into the lows.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance zone near the 0.80 handle where we
have also the confluence of the major trendline. That’s going to be a tough nut
to crack for the buyers but a breakout should open the door for a rally into
the 0.82 handle next.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep
pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend
the pullback into the 0.7937 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US jobless claims
figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US PCE report.