The USDCHF is trading lower, slipping back below its 200-hour moving average at 0.79659, after briefly breaking above it earlier in the session. That earlier move saw the pair test and reject the 200-hour MA before pushing to the session high. Notably, yesterday’s rally also stalled at this same moving average, underscoring its technical importance.
Today’s high reached 0.7986, aligning with the lower edge of a key swing-area resistance between 0.7986 and 0.7994. Sellers leaned against that zone, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias and helping drive the pair lower.
In short, the failure to hold above the 200-hour MA marks a negative shift in near-term bias, with traders now eyeing downside targets and defining risk around that moving-average ceiling.
Earlier today, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) September minutes highlighted discussions with experts about diverging interest rate trends between the U.S. and the Eurozone. The Board concluded that the current monetary stance remains appropriate across various scenarios. The SNB noted that geopolitical tensions could push investors toward safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc (lower USDCHF), though this appreciation risk is mitigated by the higher relative interest rate differential.
Despite global trade concerns and tariffs, the overall Swiss economic outlook remains stable. The SNB reaffirmed its policy rate at the zero lower bound, maintained FX intervention guidance, and kept the tiered deposit system in place. Inflation forecasts for 2025–2027 were unchanged, and Chairman Schlegel reiterated that any move toward negative rates would face a higher threshold than a standard rate cut.
