The USDCHF has been stuck in a broad sideways range since late August, with most of the trading confined between 0.7871 and 0.8076. There have been occasional breaks outside that band—including one last week—but each attempt quickly fizzled as momentum failed to follow through.
Late last week the pair rotated lower, and yesterday it dipped to the 50% midpoint of the November range near 0.8000. Although that level briefly broke, buyers stepped in and erased the decline just as quickly. Today’s trading has been contained within a narrower, lower range, and while the downside was probed again, the fall stalled at the 61.8% retracement of the November range.
On the topside, the 100-hour MA at 0.8042 and the 200-hour MA at 0.8057 remain the key hurdles. The price will need to get above and stay above those levels to tilt the bias more convincingly higher, with a further break above 0.8076 strengthening the bullish case.
Conversely, failure to break the 200-hour MA and a move back below the 61.8% retracement would reopen the door toward the 50% level and natural support near 0.8000. A break below that midpoint would put the pair back into the lower half of its choppy, months-long range.
