USDJPY Technical Analysis: Price Pinned at 155.67 Resistance

Key Technical Takeaways

• The Resistance Cluster: USDJPY is currently pinned against a critical resistance zone defined by the 100-hour MA (155.62) and the 4-hour 100-bar MA (155.675).

• The Foundation: The rally was triggered after buyers successfully defended a major swing support area between 154.33 and 154.472 during yesterday’s session and early Asian trading.

• The Bullish Trigger: A sustained break above 155.675 opens the door for a move toward 156.17 and the November highs.

• The Downside Risk: Failure to break higher could see price rotate back below the 200-bar MA at 155.277, re-exposing the 154.33 lows.

The Battle at Resistance: Converging Moving Averages

As trading moves deeper into the North American session, the USDJPY pair finds itself locked in a tight technical battle. The price action has been pinned firmly against a wall of short-term resistance.

This resistance is technically significant because it represents a convergence of two different timeframes:

1. The 100-hour moving average: Currently located at 155.62.

2. The 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart: Currently coming in at 155.675.

The intraday high so far has reached 155.63, landing precisely in the “kill zone” between these two moving averages. For the bulls to claim control of the session, they must chew through this supply and establish a foothold above 155.675.

How We Got Here: Defending the 154.33 Swing Floor

The impetus for today’s upside move didn’t just appear out of nowhere; it was built on a solid foundation of support established over the last 24 hours.

Both yesterday and during the early hours of today’s Asian session, the market tested a key downside swing area between 154.33 and 154.472.

• Yesterday’s Low: Bottomed out at 154.388.

• Asian Session Low: Buyers stepped in slightly higher at 154.507, just above the swing area.

The market’s inability to push below this key floor gave buyers the “go-ahead” signal. Recognizing that sellers were exhausted at the lows, bulls seized the momentum to push the price back up to the current resistance levels.

What Next? Bullish Breakout Scenarios

If the buyers can finish the job and extend the price above the 100-bar moving averages on both the hourly and 4-hour charts—and crucially, stay above them—the technical bias will shift further to the upside.

A confirmed breakout would have traders looking toward the following targets:

• Target 1: The immediate intermediate level at 156.17.

• Target 2: A swing area between 156.736 and 156.95.

• Target 3: The major high from November, which extended all the way up to 157.872.

The Bearish Alternative: Watching the 200-Bar MA

Traders must also respect the possibility of a failure at resistance. If the price cannot clear the 155.675 hurdle, sellers may look to regain control.

The key level to watch on the downside is the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently located at 155.277. A fall below this level would negate the short-term bullish momentum and could see sellers return with force. In that scenario, the focus would shift back to the support “floor” established yesterday near the 154.33 – 154.477 area.