It was only on Friday that I posted:

The VIX has risen again, this time to 27.86, which is a big number – the highest since August 5 last year.

Trump admitted on Monday the risk of a recession, said he’d tolerate it. This didn’t help stocks. Has anyone called it ‘Trumpcession’ yet?

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For info on the surge in VIX. So what, you ask?

The TL;DR is that a sharp jump in VIX typically signals market stress, risk aversion, and potential declines in equities. It can lead to safe-haven flows and credit tightening.

Extreme spikes sometimes mark turning points if central banks or policymakers step in. I see almost zero chance of this right now (well, I think its zero, but you never know, right?).

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And, ICYMI:

More detail:

A sharp increase in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—often called the “fear gauge”—has several important implications for financial markets:

1. Stock Market Decline

The VIX tends to rise when equity markets drop, reflecting investor fear and uncertainty.
A significant VIX spike often signals panic selling and increased hedging activity using options.
If the VIX remains elevated, it suggests sustained bearish sentiment, which may lead to further stock market weakness.

2. Increased Demand for Safe-Haven Assets

Investors typically rotate into safe-haven assets, such as:
- US Treasuries (yields fall as bond prices rise).
- Gold (seen as a store of value in uncertain times).
- Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) (traditional safe-haven currencies).
This can lead to yield curve movements, potentially flattening or inverting it further if recession fears intensify.

3. Credit Spreads Widen

Higher volatility often leads to a flight to quality in the credit markets.
Corporate bond spreads (especially high-yield or junk bonds) tend to widen as investors demand higher risk premiums.
This can make financing more expensive for companies, potentially hurting corporate investment and economic growth.

4. Increased Market Liquidity Risk

Sharp VIX spikes can lead to illiquidity in various asset classes as investors rush to unwind positions.
Bid-ask spreads widen, making trading more expensive.
Market makers may reduce their activity, exacerbating price swings.

5. FX Market Volatility

Emerging market (EM) currencies often depreciate against the US dollar (USD) due to risk aversion.
Investors pull out of riskier assets and return to USD liquidity, which strengthens the dollar.
Countries with high foreign debt exposure (denominated in USD) may face additional pressure.