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Salesforce, C3.ai, Marvell, Kroger, Snowflake and Dollar Tree will report. (0:17) Black Friday online sales hit $11.8 billion. (1:59) ChatGPT turns 3. (2:35)
The following is an abridged transcript:
As investors return from Thanksgiving with heavier waistlines and lighter wallets, shopping remains a key theme — with Salesforce (CRM) and a slate of retail names reporting earnings.
Salesforce is expected to post EPS of $2.86 on revenue of $10.27B when it reports Wednesday.
Seeking Alpha analyst Luca Socci says the market is now fixated on whether growth can break a psychological threshold investors can’t ignore. AI has flipped the narrative, he says — instead of excitement, it’s fueling doubts about CRM’s moat and the long-term payoff of Agentforce.
But DM Insights points out that the stock trades at a historically low valuation — even below the S&P 500 — and argues that its predictable model, AI tailwinds, and attractive risk/reward profile make it a Buy.
Also on the earnings calendar:
MongoDB (MDB) reports Monday.
CrowdStrike (CRWD), Marvell (MRVL) and GitLab (GTLB) issue numbers Tuesday.
Snowflake (SNOW), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and C3.ai (AI) weigh on Wednesday with Salesforce.
Kroger (KR), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Dollar General (DG) report Thursday.
Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) is up Friday.
On the economic front, he week kicks off with Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell speaking at a panel discussion at Stanford – but the Fed is in its blackout period, so expect him to stick to the topic of the economic legacy of George Schultz.
The markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the FOMC cuts by a quarter point on Dec. 10. The odds are the highest since Powell’s last press conference, which leaned Hawkish.
There will be a mix of old and new economic data. Fed officials will get the core PCE inflation figures ahead of their decision – the catch is that it’s for September.
Fed officials and traders may get better insight from the preliminary Michigan sentiment figures for December, especially expected conditions.
In the news this weekend, Adobe reported that consumers spent a record $11.8B online on Black Friday — up 9.1% year over year and ahead of expectations. Gaming console sales were strong.
From 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., shoppers spent $12.5M every minute online. Mobile once again dominated, generating 55.2% of sales.
AI traffic to U.S. retail sites surged 805% from last year, as consumers used generative AI to find deals and research products. The tools were used most for video games, appliances, electronics, toys, personal care items, and baby/toddler products.
And speaking of invaluable AI helpers, ChatGPT is celebrating its third birthday today. From the faint echoes of keystrokes in 2022 to the thunder of the AI trade today, here’s how OpenAI (OPENAI) has grown:
2022: ChatGPT hits 1M users in five days; early valuations ~$20B; GPU demand narrative begins.
2023: Microsoft (MSFT) invests $10B; OpenAI hits $30B; Sam Altman is ousted and reinstated in a dramatic governance showdown.
2024: Model competition accelerates; private valuation rises to ~$90B; enterprise monetization ramps.
2025: AI becomes daily infrastructure; OpenAI projects 220M subscribers by 2030; valuation hits $500B in October; the agent economy takes shape.
And Swiss voters have decisively rejected a proposal to impose a 50% inheritance tax on the super-rich. More than 80% voted against the plan.
The measure — aimed at estates above SFr50M and intended to fund climate initiatives — faced backlash from the federal government and business groups, who warned it would undermine Switzerland’s appeal as a stable financial hub.
And for income investors, Lockheed Martin (LMT) goes ex-dividend on Monday, paying out on Dec. 30. McDonald’s (MCD) and Coca-Cola (COLA) – a classic combo – also go ex-dividend on Monday and both pay out on Dec. 15.
Goldman Sachs (GS) goes ex-dividend on Tuesday, paying out on Dec. 30.
On Thursday, Home Depot (HD) and Qualcomm (QCOM) go ex-dividend, both paying out on Dec. 18.
On Friday, Waste Management (WM) goes ex-dividend with a Dec. 19 payout date. Bank of America (BAC), BlackRock (BLK) and Union Pacific (UNP) also go ex-dividend. BofA pays out on Dec. 26, BlackRock on Dec. 23 and Union Pacific on Dec. 30.
