Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 18 bps (71% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 85 bps
- ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 154 bps
- BoE: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 78 bps
- BoC: 36 bps (57% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 106 bps
- RBA: 3 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 66 bps
- RBNZ: 36 bps (56% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 98 bps
- SNB: 41 bps (65% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 96 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 9 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 48 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
