Today the main event was the UK jobs data. We got another mixed bag with a further uptick in the unemployment rate but wage growth remaining sticky at elevated levels.
This hasn’t changed much for the market as it continues to fully price the first 25 bps cut in November with a total of 35 bps of easing by year end vs. 30 bps before the data release.
The Bank of England is more focused on the inflation data although these labour market reports will make their decision a bit harder.
The next notable release will be the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 10:00 GMT/06:00 ET where it’s expected to tick higher to 89.8 vs. 89.7 prior. Although this is not a market-moving report, the data can give some early signals about the economic trends and an overall better view of the big picture.
We will also have some ECB speakers on the agenda but don’t expect them to say anything new as they will continue to postpone views and decisions until September while they gather more data and enjoy the summer.
