What are the primary occasions to look out for at present?

The markets are still in a risk-off mood and the month-end flows might be the culprit. The data today is unlikely to change the fundamentals, so it’s hard to find what could reverse the current sentiment. Maybe a (hopefully) soft PCE tomorrow might help.

Anyway the highlights for today include the Eurozone unemployment rate and the US jobless claims. We will also see the preliminary US Q1 GDP, which is the second estimate after the advance reading we got last month. The market is generally forward-looking, so it doesn’t care much about GDP because it’s old news.

09:00 GMT Eurozone Unemployment Rate

The Eurozone Unemployment Rate is expected
to remain unchanged at 6.5% vs. 6.5% prior. The rate has been hovering at the
record low for a year denoting a tight labour market. Moreover, the recent Eurozone
Negotiated Wage Growth for Q1 2024 came in
higher than the prior quarter, which was kind of a setback for the ECB even
though they “dismissed” it as a one-off because of the delayed action to raise
wages against inflation in Germany. Nonetheless, the strong economic data should give them less confidence regarding the rate cut path beyond June.

12:30 GMT/08:30 ET US Jobless Claims

The US Jobless Claims
continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s
a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. This is because
disinflation to the Fed’s target is more likely with a weakening labour market.
A resilient
labour market though could make the achievement of the target more difficult.

Initial Claims keep on
hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around the
1800K level. This
week Initial Claims are expected at 218K vs. 215K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1800K vs. 1794K prior.

Central bank speakers:

• 16:05 GMT/12:05 ET – Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter).
• 21:00 GMT/17:00 ET – Fed’s Logan (neutral – non voter).