EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we have lots of low tier data releases like the French PPI and Spanish Retail Sales that are not going to change anything for the ECB at this point. Therefore, the market reaction will likely be muted.
As a reminder, the ECB is widely expected to deliver an “insurance” rate hike in June and then take a pause at least until September to see how the economic data and the US-Iran situation evolves over the summer.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PCE price index for April. Initial Claims are expected at 210K vs 209K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1784K vs 1782K prior. All the US jobs data has been pointing to a resilient and even strengthening labour market. The Fed has now turned its focus to inflation.
The US PCE Y/Y is expected at 3.8% vs 3.5% prior, while the Core PCE Y/Y is seen at 3.3% vs 3.2% prior. Even though the Fed targets the PCE, the CPI is always more important because it’s released much earlier and because the PCE is known well in advance given that it can be accurately forecasted using CPI and PPI inputs.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 07:15 GMT/03:15 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
- 07:20 GMT/03:20 ET – ECB President Lagarde (neutral – voter)
- 08:05 GMT/04:05 ET – BoE’s Breeden (neutral – voter)
- 08:30 GMT/04:30 ET – ECB’s Cipollone (neutral – voter)
- 10:30 GMT/06:30 ET – ECB’s Cipollone (neutral – voter)
- 11:00 GMT/07:00 ET – SNB Chairman Schlegel (neutral – voter)
- 12:55 GMT/08:55 ET – Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter)
- 14:15 GMT/10:15 ET – Fed’s Musalem (hawkish – non voter)
- 15:40 GMT/11:40 ET – BoE’s Breeden (neutral – voter)
- 15:45 GMT/11:45 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (neutral – voter)
- 17:10 GMT/13:10 ET – Fed’s Musalem (hawkish – non voter)
- 19:00 GMT/15:00 ET – Fed’s Barkin (neutral – non voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
