EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data was basically in-line with expectations across the board and didn’t change much in terms of BoE interest rate expectations. As a reminder, the market is pricing in 50 bps of tightening by year-end, with the first rate hike coming in November.

Looking ahead, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low-tier releases like French and Spanish final CPI data, the Italian and Eurozone trade balance and the German ZEW. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, the only highlight is the Clarity Act cloture vote at 18:15 GMT/14:15 ET. This is a crypto-specific event. The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. Among its key objectives is drawing a clearer line between the jurisdictions of the SEC and CFTC. The legislation also aims to establish regulatory requirements for crypto exchanges, brokers and dealers.

The potential benefit for the broader crypto market is regulatory certainty which could ultimately support greater institutional participation, deeper liquidity and more capital flowing into digital assets. Cloture requires 60 votes just to open debate on the legislation. If the vote fails, it could effectively close the legislative window for crypto market structure this year, given the November midterms, and that could trigger a selloff in Bitcoin. Even if the vote is successful, I’m afraid we could see a “sell the fact” reaction, with Bitcoin falling as the focus will quickly turn to the FOMC decision tomorrow.