In the European session, we will get the Final services PMIs and the Eurozone PPI which shouldn’t change much in terms of interest rate expectations. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI data but keep an eye on potential headlines on a Trump-Xi call as it was postponed yesterday.
13:15 GMT/08:15 ET – US January ADP
The US ADP is
expected at 150K vs. 122K prior. This is not a reliable indicator for NFP, but
it’s been pointing to a normalising but stable job creation. It shouldn’t
be as market moving as it was in second half of last year as the market has
already repriced interest rate expectations and it’s now just about further
easing in inflation.
15:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US January ISM Services PMI
The US ISM
Services PMI is expected at 54.3 vs. 54.1 prior. The US
S&P Global Services PMI missed expectations by a big margin but as the
agency noted “although output growth slowed slightly in January,
sustained confidence suggests that this slowdown might be short-lived.
Especially
encouraging is the upturn in hiring that has been fuelled by the improved
business outlook, with jobs being created at a rate not seen for two-and-a-half
years.” Anyway, the Manufacturing PMI is a better indicator for the turns in
the business cycle.
Central bank speakers:
- 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET – ECB’s Lane (voter – dove)
- 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET – Fed’s Barkin (non voter – neutral)
- 18:00 GMT/13:00 ET – Fed’s Goolsbee (voter – dove)
- 20:00 GMT/15:00 ET – Fed’s Bowman (voter – hawk)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
