JPMorgan trading desk outlines scenarios for the US stock market, the likely response of the S&P 500 (the one-day implied move), based on what the April CPI m/m reading will be:
If the CPI comes in below 0.2% m/m, which JPM say is a 2.5% probability, then 2 to 2.5% gains for the index
- between 0.20% to 0.25%, to which JPM ascribe a 7.5% probability, gains of 1.5% to 2%
- between 0.25% to 0.3%, 10% probability, gains of 1% to 1.5%
- between 0.3% to 0.35%, probability 40%, S&P 500 down by 0.5% to a 1% gain
- between 0.35% to 0.4%, 30% probability, down 0.5% to 1.25%
- CPI above 0.4%, probability 10%, down 1.75% to 2.5%
JPMorgan info via Bloomberg report.
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Everyone if its +0.4%
