What’s arising on the US financial calendar for the second week of December

This week ahead includes CPI and PPI and with some notable Treasury auctions. The Fed goes into blackout at midnight on Friday so it will be considerably quieter on that front. The FOMC decision is December 18.

Here’s a day-by-day preview of next week’s U.S. economic data releases:

Monday, December 9

• 10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories (Month-over-Month, October)
  This low-priority release provides insight into the inventory levels of US wholesale and that goes into GDP estimates but it’s rarely a market mover. The prior reading showed a 0.2% increase.

Tuesday, December 10

• 8:30 AM: Non-Farm Productivity (Q3)
  A low-priority release that measures the output per worker. The consensus expects no change from the previous quarter’s reading of 2.2%. On Friday, Goolsbee talked about the productivity boom puzzle in the US.

• Auction: 3-Year Treasury sale ($58 billion)

Wednesday, December 11

• 8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • CPI Month-over-Month (November): A high-priority release that measures monthly changes in consumer prices. The consensus forecast is a 0.3% rise, compared to the previous month’s 0.2% increase.
  • CPI Month-over-Month (Core, November): Excludes volatile food and energy prices. The consensus is also a 0.3% increase, the same as the prior reading.
  • CPI Year-over-Year (November): The consensus expects the annual inflation rate to accelerate slightly to 2.7%, up from 2.6% previously.
  • CPI Year-over-Year (Core, November): Core inflation is projected to remain steady at 3.3%.

• Auction: 10-Year Treasury sale ($39 billion)

Thursday, December 12

• 8:30 AM:

  • Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending December 7):We got a six-week high last week.
  • Producer Price Index (PPI) Month-over-Month (November):This isn’t as notable when it comes out after CPI but the consensus is for a 0.3% increase, matching the prior month’s reading.
  • Producer Price Index (Core) Month-over-Month (November): Excluding food and energy, core PPI is also expected to rise by 0.2%, slightly below the prior month’s 0.3%.

• Auction: 30-Year Treasury sale ($22 billion)The on-the-run 30s are trading at 4.34%.

Friday, December 13

• 8:30 AM:
  • Import Price Index Month-over-Month (November): A measure of price changes for imported goods. The consensus forecast is a slight decline of 0.3%, following a prior increase of 0.3%. This won’t be a market mover.

All told, it’s a fairly quiet week with one major release and no Fed jibber-jabber. That’s probably a good setup for risk assets