World Series G3: Dodgers-Yankees Preview, Props & Prediction

The New York Yankees came tantalizingly — and agonizingly — close to wresting home-field advantage away in Game 1 of the World Series but now return home for Game 3 of the World Series on Monday night with their backs firmly against the proverbial wall.

Freddie Freeman’s walk-off home run in Game 1 was followed by a 4-2 Dodgers win the following night, giving Los Angeles a 2-0 series lead as the series shifts to the Bronx.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Yankees will send Clark Schmidt to the mound and are 1.5-run favorites ahead of Game 3. The Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler and have been backed by 85 percent of the spread-line money wagered at BetRivers, where their -175 moneyline has also drawn 81 percent of the money wagered. The Yankees’ -137 moneyline did attract a $10,000 wager at the book.

The Over/Under for total runs scored is a consensus 8.5. The first two games in Los Angeles averaged a combined 7.5 runs, but the Over has been backed by 84 percent of the money at BetRivers with the series moving to Yankee Stadium.

PROP PICKS

–Walker Buehler Under 14.5 Total Outs (-140 at DraftKings): Buehler is no stranger to the World Series stage, having made starts in 2018 and 2020. He does enter Monday night with an 0-1 record and 6.00 ERA in a pair of postseason starts this year, lasting 5.0 innings in the first but getting pulled after just 4.0 shutout innings of the second.

Just as important in considering this prop is that the Dodgers’ bullpen is in good shape following an off day, and manager Dave Roberts will always play the percentages. Jack Flaherty was pulled after allowing a pair of runs in 5 1/3 innings of Game 1, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto went an inning longer while allowing a lone run the following night.

–Juan Soto Over 0.5 Hits (-195 at BetRivers): This has drawn the most player prop money at the book with 2.2 percent. Soto has three hits through the first two games of the series and has racked up seven during his current four-game hitting streak. In all he has at least one hit in seven of his past eight games.

THE NEWS

The Yankees were close to at least exiting Dodger Stadium with a split and possibly two wins.

Instead, the Dodgers were productive enough and even with Shohei Ohtani off to a quiet start and sustaining a partially dislocated left shoulder, the best team during the regular season is halfway to a title.

The Dodgers are attempting to win their first title in a 162-game season since beating the Oakland Athletics in five games in 1988. Like that series, Los Angeles won the opening two games at home and the Dodgers are seeking a three games to none lead for the first time since 1963 when they swept the Yankees.

Ohtani is 1-for-8 in the series and Roberts said the superstar felt good Sunday morning, flew separately from the team and was able to participate in their workout.

“If (Ohtani) feels good enough to go, I see no reason why he wouldn’t be in there,” Roberts said of the starting lineup before the Dodgers worked out.

The Yankees are hoping to get some better clutch hitting after going 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position in Los Angeles. Soto homered in Game 2 but Aaron Judge went 1-for-9 with six strikeouts and is 6-for-40 with 19 strikeouts during the postseason.

“Just expanding the zone. That’s what it really comes down to,” Judge said. “I think it’s trying to make things happen instead of letting the game come to you. Plain and simple, I’ve got to start swinging at strikes.”

Judge is struggling while hitting between Soto and Giancarlo Stanton, who are hitting a combined .313 (26-for-83) with 10 homers and 23 RBIs in the postseason.

“We’ve been through a lot of tough moments throughout the year. So I think we’ve been there,” Soto said. “We know how (to take) a couple punches in the face and just keep battling and keep going. We can go home and do our thing.”

The Yankees are facing a 2-0 deficit for the first time since dropping the first two against the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001 in a series that reached Game 7. New York is facing a two games to none World Series deficit for the ninth time and rallied to win a title in 1996 against the Atlanta Braves, 1978 against the Dodgers, 1958 against the Milwaukee Braves and 1956 against the Brooklyn Dodgers.

PITCHING MATCHUP

Schmidt, who has a pair of no-decisions in the postseason, will pitch in Game 3 for the third straight time. He is also pitching for the first time since allowing two runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings in Cleveland in Game 3 of the ALCS on Oct. 17.

“I’m obviously very excited to get out there, but I know I have a job to do. We’re trying to win this World Series,” Schmidt said before Game 2. “I think for me I’m just trying to go out there and execute and do my job.”

Buehler was tagged for six runs in five innings in Game 3 of the Division Series at San Diego and allowed three hits in four innings during an 8-0 win over the Mets in Game 3 of the NLCS on Oct. 16.

Buehler is 1-0 with an 0.69 ERA in a pair of World Series Starts which occurred in Games 3 in 2018 against the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay two years later.

“We love Walker in big games,” Roberts said. “The road isn’t going to faze him. It also allows him potentially to be available for a Game 7, too.”

KEY STAT

Under the World Series’ current 2-3-2 format, the team winning the opening two games has won 45 out of 56 times. The last team to overcome a two games to none deficit was the Yankees, who are the only team to do so since the 1986 New York Mets.

PREDICTION

The Yankees return home for the first time since a win in Game 2 over Cleveland 13 days ago. They’re 3-1 at Yankee Stadium this postseason and Judge will get on track sooner than later as Buehler also must contend with the red-hot bats of Soto and Stanton. — Yankees 6, Dodgers 5

–Field Level Media