Oil has bounced back nicely from the post-OPEC dip. I think there was some short covering after shorts hit a record into the meeting.

In the bigger picture, US demand hasn’t been good to start the driving season and there is some global cyclical angst creeping into many markets. OPEC looks to be holding the line and export numbers have been soft.

Cracks have been improving but still don’t paint a good picture for demand while timespreads are more constructive.

Ultimately that looks like a market that’s unsure of what to do and that’s why it’s been stuck in a range from $80 to $82.40 for the past week. I’d be tempted to go with a break in either direction but I also fear that oil could get caught up in geopolitical worries with Israel/Lebanon war talk heating up.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.