Iran unwilling to debate Hormuz whereas below assault – report

A Bloomberg report citing an Iranian official says that Iran is sticking to its hardline position on the Strait of Hormuz and unwilling to discuss opening it while it’s under attack.

The report says:

Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, according to a person involved in direct, high-level contacts with Tehran.

It looks like early next week, we will have some kind of showdown between the US navy and Iran’s soldiers near the strait. How that unfolds is uncertain because President Trump confirmed there are no plans to send troops to any place. Of course, truth is the first casualty of war and this whole thing started while peace discussions were ongoing.

“Officials are losing confidence that the US and Israel have an exit plan and see deeper economic disruptions ahead,” the report says.

May WTI crude was as low as $92.47 earlier today but it’s risen more than $5 on growing expectations that Trump will blow beyond the 4-5 week timeline he set for the war.

The S&P 500 remains within today’s range and is down 0.8%.

Despite what Trump is saying about ground troops, all indications are that next week, Marines will be tasked with taking over Kharg Island and holding it hostage in order to get Iran to open up the Strait. As it stands, Iran is the only country that’s using the Strait and that’s providing them enhanced revenues while depriving the rest of the world of either oil or oil sales.

The US may try to flip that and allow Gulf states to export while Iran is locked out. Military experts say that may be difficult given that Iran has 1000 miles of coast from which to attack tankers sailing through, along with drones that can be launched from inland. It will be particularly tough for the US to protect ships if it refuses to put an troops on shore.

At this point, you have to hope that Trump is getting a sober assessment of the situation but what nags at me is that it’s entirely in Russia’s interest to keep this war going as long as possible.

Finally the report says this:

At the outset of the war, Iran told regional intermediaries that it was willing to discuss a truce if it had guarantees there will be no further attacks on the country.

That possibility now seems elusive.

Not a great look.