US stocks are higher, yields are back down after moving higher yesterday, and oil prices are lower. The USD meanwhile is confined in trading and little changed awaiting the next shove. Overnight, Iran said that they would allow “non-hostile” ships through the Strait of Hormuz” which is leading the the reversal in stocks and yields and oil.
In the video above, I take a detailed look at the three major currency pair – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. What is pushing the pair higher or lower and why? What needs to happen to break the pair out of the confined trading ranges? In the meantime, the buyers and sellers are battling it out, throwing punches but getting more and more tired.
Today, the US import and export price data will be released at 8;30 AM ET. The estimate is for dual 0.5% price rises
Import prices have been broadly flat over the past year, down just 0.1% year-over-year through January 2026. That headline number masks a big split under the hood: fuel imports fell sharply — petroleum down around 16% — which offset a meaningful rise in nonfuel imports of about 1.2%. Within nonfuel categories, industrial supplies, capital goods, automotive vehicles, and agricultural products all pushed higher. Export prices told a more clearly positive story, rising around 2.6–3.3% over the year, with broad-based gains across foods, automotive, capital goods, and consumer products. Imports from China continued to trend lower, while trade flows from Canada and Mexico showed more mixed pricing dynamics.
These indexes are not adjusted for inflation — they are the inflation measure for traded goods, similar to how the CPI tracks consumer prices. They’re used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to deflate trade data in national accounts. One important caveat, though: these indexes do not capture the cost of tariffs. When tariffs are factored in, the actual cost of imported goods into the US has been rising since at least late 2025, meaning the “flat” import price headline likely understates what American businesses and consumers are actually paying at the border.
