Internal rift threatens Iran’s unified entrance forward of Islamabad summit – report

• Tehran divided over delegation powers

• IRGC demands hardline security chief join U.S.-Iran peace talks

• Iranian negotiators resist military pressure to include Zolghadr in team

• IRGC demands that its missile program remain off Islamabad agenda

• Internal rift threatens Iran’s unified front ahead of US negotiations

• Power struggle in Tehran as IRGC moves to cage diplomatic delegation

Iran International reports that on the eve of the negotiations between the Islamic Republic and the United States in Islamabad, a severe disagreement has emerged among senior government officials in Iran regarding the composition and powers of the negotiating delegation.

Along those lines, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC has called for the inclusion of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, in the negotiating delegation. This is a demand that has met with resistance from the negotiating team, who consider Zolghadr to lack the necessary experience for these strategic negotiations. In addition, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC and the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force have emphasized that the dispatched delegation must refrain from any negotiations regarding the Islamic Republic’s missile program.

Note that Iran International is an explicitly regime-opposed publication so this report should be taken with a grain of salt.

For now, reports say that Iran’s delegation has arrived in Pakistan and that a US delegation led byJD Vance is on the way. WTI crude oil is down 14-cents to $97.90 on the day, so there is some optimism that we make progress towards a deal.

Today’s trade is likely to be about position squaring into the weekend because it’s not clear if we get progress or a breakdown in talks. For me, the two week timeline is extremely tight to get real progress as these things often take months. I also worry that Trump’s threatening and maximalist style makes for fraught negotiations.

That said, JD Vance has been said to oppose the war from the start so it may be in his interest to finesse a deal and make real concessions in order to make that happen. On the Iran side, they’re digging in on Lebanon so that remains the place to watch.