The Russian Drone That Hit Romania Also Hit European Confidence

Europeans, adrift between Russia and the United States, are in a persistent state of anxiety — about the war in Ukraine, hostility from President Trump, threats from Moscow and their own weak economies, worsened by the impact of the war in Iran.

The Russian drone that hit a Romanian apartment building on Friday morning, wounding two people in NATO territory, may have been an accident. But it has only added to the wariness Europeans feel as the Ukraine war drags through its fifth year.

Stymied on the battlefield, the Russians appear to be taking more risks and escalating their threats against countries that support Ukraine. European leaders warn of a militarized Russia able to attack NATO in the next three to five years, and Mr. Trump keeps raising doubts about America’s commitment to European security.

The drone that hit Romania was hardly the beginning of an attack. Still, European leaders reacted with strong words about Russian recklessness and their commitment to collective defense.

It inevitably raised new questions about NATO’s ability to protect its own territory, despite efforts to create “drone walls” and the establishment of Operation Eastern Sentry, launched last September after a larger and intentional intrusion of Russian drones into Poland.

All of those doubts serve the interests of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, which are to divide NATO, break up the trans-Atlantic alliance and encourage Washington to bring its troops and missiles home, leaving Europe more vulnerable.

But Russia has a more immediate goal, analysts suggest. By escalating attacks on Ukraine and warning that the embassies of allied countries in Kyiv are at risk, the Kremlin is also trying to change the momentum of the war against Ukraine.

“Russia’s war is not going well, and Ukraine’s deep strike campaign inside Russia is increasingly causing problems for Moscow, so Russia is increasing its warnings about escalation to what it calls the strategic hinterland, which is the countries that are supporting Ukraine,” said Hanna Notte, a Russia expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

Russia’s huge recent attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, including with a high-tech Oreshnik missile, along with its warnings to Western ambassadors, also represent an attempt to regain the notice of a Trump administration that is paying less attention to Ukraine and has become preoccupied with Iran, she suggested. If Russia cannot win the war anytime soon, she said, “its only hope is to get Trump back to the table and increase the pressure on Ukraine to settle the war on Moscow’s terms.”

With its frequent threats, aerial intrusions, and campaign of cyberattacks and sabotage against critical infrastructure in NATO countries, Russia is trying to shift attention away from the battlefield in Ukraine, argued Jan Techau, the Europe director for the Eurasia Group.

“Russia wants to enlarge the problem, to increase the pressure on domestic debates in our countries, to try to underscore that Ukraine can’t possibly win and that it’s time to push Kyiv to settle,” he said. Moscow hopes that making all of Europe feel vulnerable, and capitalizing on Mr. Trump’s hostility to NATO and friendliness to Russia, will help that strategy succeed.

Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, said the Russians were trying “to escalate to de-escalate, to re-establish some form of dominance to be able to negotiate a conclusion in Ukraine from a position of strength.”

Adding significantly to European anxiety are recent statements and actions by the Trump administration. Mr. Trump, angry about his own stalemate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, has lashed out at NATO countries, calling the alliance “a paper tiger.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio, historically a strong supporter of NATO, said that if NATO countries did not allow their bases to be used for an American war, then he wondered what NATO was for.

American officials have warned Europeans that they must take responsibility for their own conventional defense as Washington shifts troops and equipment to the Indo-Pacific. But they have accelerated the withdrawal faster than Europeans expected. Just last week, Alexander Velez-Green, a Defense Department official, told NATO allies that the Pentagon was substantially scaling back the forces it planned to send to Europe in a crisis, including long-range strike forces and air-to-air refueling planes.

That came on top of Mr. Trump’s sudden decision to pull 5,000 troops out of Germany, including an armored brigade combat team that had already begun to rotate there. The move came after Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, criticized Mr. Trump’s tactics in Iran. German officials fear the president will also cancel a plan to station long-range Tomahawk missiles in their country.

After the Pentagon announced the cancellation of another armored brigade to Poland, Mr. Trump said he would send Poland 5,000 more troops because he likes the Polish president, adding to European confusion about American policy.

Julianne Smith, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, noted “so many contradictions right now,” leading to what could be a dangerous miscalculation by Mr. Putin, believing he can be more aggressive because the alliance is at a weak point.

A shortage in air-defense missiles, in part because of their extensive use in the war in the Middle East, means that Ukraine and NATO allies cannot even buy what they need for their security, she said. Pair that with the American announcement about troop withdrawals, she said, “and I wonder if Putin will take even more risks, which just adds to the anxiety.”

Russia is hardly being subtle. Dmitri A. Medvedev, the former Russian president whom the Kremlin uses to issue extreme and provocative threats, said in a posting on Friday addressed to Europeans: “You should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia. So be vigilant and don’t be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over.”