MLB Thursday Best Bets: 3 Picks for the Playoff Race

The American League West race is even with 10 games left as the playoff battles intensify on Thursday. The Texas Rangers have won four straight games to catch the Houston Astros with identical 76-76 records.

The Rangers and Astros also are part of a tight wild-card field that sees the fading Chicago White Sox holding the third and final spot by one game. The Rangers host the Boston Red Sox and the Astros host the Kansas City Royals on Thursday.

In the National League East, the Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets in the opener of a four-game series and their focus may soon be totally on the wild-card berth as they trail the Atlanta Braves by 4 ½ games. The Phillies are second in that derby, a half-game behind the Chicago Cubs.

BOSTON RED SOX AT TEXAS RANGERS

Texas won the first two games of the series with the Red Sox to get a pivotal nine-game homestand off to a stellar start. The Rangers racked up 13 hits and went 7-for-16 with runners in scoring position during Wednesday’s 7-3 victory.

Texas had been floundering most of the season but suddenly is a hot club at a very good time. The Red Sox are slumping with five losses in their past seven games but it would take an even bigger collapse to fall out of the AL’s second wild-card spot.

Willson Contreras increased his career-best homer count to 27 with a two-run shot Wednesday that gave him a career-high 81 RBIs. Right-hander Sonny Gray is 8-3 with a 3.21 ERA against Texas but it feels like this one won’t be a winning effort.

Rangers to win moneyline, +118 (DraftKings)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS AT HOUSTON ASTROS

Remember when Yordan Alvarez appeared to be sailing toward AL MVP honors while making a run at the Triple Crown? Yeah, that guy who had 35 homers at the end of July has gone deep just four times since though he does still lead the league with a .310 batting average.

But this version of Alvarez has brought Houston back to the pack and the Astros have lost seven of their last 10 after splitting the first two games with the Royals. As for Kansas City, Bobby Witt Jr. has just 18 homers and 54 RBIs and the real power is being supplied by guys named Carter Jensen (24) and Jac Caglianone (23).

Caglianone was a first-round draft pick (sixth overall) in 2024 and Jensen was a third-round choice in 2021. Right-hander Seth Lugo is the most important Kansas City player Thursday and he is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in five career starts against the Astros while struggling with Alvarez (4-for-11, one homer).

Teams to score under 9 runs, -112 (DraftKings)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES AT NEW YORK METS

When the Phillies beat the Washington Nationals 3-0 on Wednesday, it was just their fifth win in 13 games, hindering their chances of making a run at the Braves. The good news is they now face the Mets, who have been playing out the string for the second half of the season and have lost four straight games entering this set.

New York scored seven runs during the skid and five of them came in one game. Perhaps seeing right-hander Aaron Nola will help as he is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts against the Mets this season. Juan Soto has five homers in 46 at-bats against Nola and Francisco Alvarez is 5-for-10 with three homers against him.

Kyle Schwarber leads the majors with 45 homers and he has torched New York pitching this season with six homers and 13 RBIs in just 34 at-bats. However, right-hander Nolan McLean (2-1, 0.47 in three career starts against Philadelphia) has held Schwarber to 0-for-7 with two walks, which will make for some interesting confrontations in this game.

Phillies to win money line, +114 (DraftKings)