The Toronto Blue Jays (72-72) and the Athletics (57-87) meet at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, California on Monday night for the opener of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:05 p.m. ET.
The Blue Jays open play a game behind the Cleveland Guardians for the final wild-card spot in the American League, and they’re a game ahead of the Texas Rangers in a logjam in the AL standings.
Toronto hits the road looking to improve upon its 35-37 road record. The Blue Jays are 14-11 against AL West teams, and they’re 22-19 against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto will have to try and negotiate LHP Jacob Lopez (6-4, 4.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), as he makes his 21st start and 24th appearance.
While Lopez’s overall body of work isn’t great, he has been very good lately, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across the past seven starts over 40.1 IP, while striking out 50 batters.
However, the Blue Jays counter with All-Star RHP Dylan Cease (10-5, 2.25 WHIP, 1.04 WHIP), and he is showing no signs of letting up. Cease is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 43 IP in the past seven starts, and he has logged 54 strikeouts. He ranks second in the majors with 221 strikeouts, too, while the A’s have whiffed 1,235 times, 10th in the majors.
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Toronto swept the A’s in a three-game set back on March 27-29, outscoring them 16-9 while the Under cashed in two of the three meetings.
The Blue Jays were tripped up Sunday in Kansas City, falling 6-1, but they’re still 7-2 across the past nine games, and the Under has cashed in back-to-back games, while the total has gone low in five of the past eight outings.
For the Athletics, they were blanked 2-0 in Seattle on Sunday, as the Mariners denied them a four-game sweep at T-Mobile Park. The Under easily cashed in that one, halting a seven-game Over run. At home, however, the A’s have cashed low in five of the past eight games. The Under is also 3-1 in the past four starts by Lopez, too.
Our best play in Monday’s series opener is to play the UNDER 8.5 (-120), and go rather aggressively on that, too, despite the recent Over run by the A’s. Cease and Lopez have been posting a lot of donuts lately.
We’ll also lean to ATHLETICS +1.5 (-108) on the run line. This should be a tight game, potentially a one-run game, and with Cease and Lopez we could have a 3-2 kind of a battle.
Cease has seven or more strikeouts in eight of the past nine starts, too. It won’t take much to get to eight punchouts. CEASE OVER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS (+116) at plus-money is worth a roll of the dice.
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