There’s little doubt that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will seize a fourth consecutive time period when Bangladesh goes to the polls on Sunday. The larger query is what’s going to stay of the nation’s democracy.

The principle opposition occasion, the Bangladesh Nationalist Get together, has been crushed and left with little mobilizing capability. Its leaders who will not be already in jail are bogged down with endless court appointments or are in hiding with the police on their tail. Ms. Hasina’s Awami League, in energy since 2009, has cleared the way in which for a race so one-sided that the occasion urged its personal contestants to prop up dummy candidates so it doesn’t look as in the event that they gained unchallenged.

The B.N.P. has boycotted the vote, after Ms. Hasina rejected its demand that she step apart through the marketing campaign interval so the election might be held beneath a impartial administration. Whilst Bangladesh has seemed to be discovering a path to prosperity and shedding a legacy of coups and assassinations, the uncontested election exhibits how politics on this nation of 170 million stays hostage to a long time of unhealthy blood between the 2 main events.

The potential of violence hangs within the air. The opposition’s effort to protest the vote, with repeated requires nationwide strikes and civil disobedience, has been met with an intensified crackdown. Greater than 20,000 B.N.P. members and leaders have been arrested for the reason that occasion’s final main rally, in October, based on occasion leaders and legal professionals.

Diplomats in Dhaka stated that they had obtained experiences of appalling circumstances inside overcrowded prisons. A minimum of 9 opposition leaders and members have died in jail for the reason that Oct. 28 crackdown, based on human rights organizations and experiences in native information media.

Because the B.N.P. has issued one other name for a nationwide strike, this one on the eve of the election, safety has been elevated, with the military deployed within the capital, Dhaka, and different areas.

Late Friday on a prepare in Dhaka, a fireplace suspected to be arson killed no less than 4 individuals, safety officers stated. Tensions appeared solely to escalate as safety officers, not directly, and ruling occasion members, very directly, blamed the B.N.P. for the blaze that left no less than 4 prepare automobiles burned and took an hour to extinguish.

“There is a risk of increased violence after the polls, from both sides,” stated Pierre Prakash, the Asia director for the International Crisis Group. “If the B.N.P. feels the largely nonviolent strategy it deployed in the run-up to the 2024 election has failed, leaders could come under pressure to revert to the more overt violence of the past.”

And if the B.N.P. does resort to widespread violence, Mr. Prakash stated, it is going to be strolling proper right into a entice. Ms. Hasina’s occasion has been laying the groundwork for an excellent wider crackdown because it pushes a story that the opposition is stuffed with “terrorists” and “killers.”

Throughout Ms. Hasina’s 15-year rule, her second stint in energy, the nation has been a paradox of kinds.

As investments within the garment export business started paying off, the financial system skilled such spectacular progress that common revenue ranges at one level surpassed India’s. Bangladesh has additionally proven main strides in different growth areas, from schooling and well being to feminine participation within the labor power and preparedness in opposition to local weather disasters.

However all alongside, critics say, Ms. Hasina, 76, has tried to show the nation right into a one-party state. From the safety businesses to the courts, she has captured authorities establishments and unleashed them onto anybody who doesn’t fall in line.

Within the newest instance, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus was given a six-month jail sentence in what he has described as a political vendetta. Mr. Yunus is out on bail and interesting the decision in a case that authorities officers say will not be political and includes violations of labor legal guidelines.

Ms. Hasina’s drive to dismantle the B.N.P. typically seems to be a private marketing campaign of vengeance.

For more often than not since Bangladesh’s creation in 1971 — when it separated from Pakistan after a bloody marketing campaign of cultural oppression in opposition to Bengalis — the nation has been dominated by the 2 events.

The Awami League was the occasion of Ms. Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the nation’s independence chief and founding president. After he set out on a marketing campaign to centralize energy, he was killed in a navy coup that additionally left a lot of his younger household useless.

The B.N.P. was fashioned by Gen. Ziaur Rahman, the military chief who rose to energy after a bloody part of coups and counter-coups within the wake of Sheikh Mujib’s assassination. Mr. Zia, as he was identified, was additionally later killed in a navy coup.

Whereas Ms. Hasina sees the B.N.P. because the creation of the identical navy cadre that protected her father’s killers, her drive to destroy the occasion is much more private, her aides say. When the B.N.P., led by Mr. Zia’s widow, Khaleda Zia, was in energy within the early 2000s, one in all Ms. Hasina’s rallies as an opposition chief was attacked by dozens of grenades. She survived a detailed name, however greater than 20 of her occasion’s leaders and supporters have been killed.

Over the previous couple of years, Ms. Hasina’s crackdown has change into notably extreme because the sheen from the story of financial progress has worn off.

The successive blows of the pandemic and the Ukraine battle, which pushed up gasoline and meals costs, have shrunk Bangladesh’s overseas reserves to harmful lows. The disaster has uncovered not solely Bangladesh’s overreliance on the garment business, but additionally what Western diplomats in Dhaka say are kleptocratic practices hidden beneath the nation’s financial progress.

The ruling elite, diplomats say, faucet into banks and the nation’s riches with little accountability. With about 60 p.c of Parliament made up of businesspeople, financial pursuits and political energy have change into deeply intertwined, impeding financial reform, analysts say.

The opposition tried to capitalize on public anger over rising costs, holding its first giant rallies in years. However its momentum was short-lived, as the federal government’s crackdown deepened.

The B.N.P. says its demand for an election beneath a impartial caretaker was nothing new — Ms. Hasina referred to as for a similar when she was within the opposition, and he or she got here to energy in an election administered by a caretaker authorities. Bangladesh’s establishments are so weak to abuse by the ruling occasion that no opposition has gained election when the vote was not held beneath a caretaker.

However Ms. Hasina considers the B.N.P.’s demand to be a violation of the structure — as a result of, after she got here to energy, she amended the constitution to declare the follow unlawful and a disruption to the democratic cycle.

Looking for to keep away from a repeat of the 2014 vote, wherein Ms. Hasina’s occasion gained greater than half of the seats uncontested, the Awami League has been pointing to the smaller events which are nonetheless contesting this yr’s election. However analysts say the occasion has engineered a brand new token opposition. A few of these candidates made clear on marketing campaign posters the place they stood: “Supported by the Awami League.”

The B.N.P.’s chief, Ms. Zia, a former prime minister, stays beneath home arrest. Her son, the occasion’s appearing chairman, is in exile in London. A lot of the occasion’s management is in jail.

Within the weeks main as much as Sunday’s vote, the occasion’s visibility was largely decreased to digital information conferences by Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, one of many few senior B.N.P. leaders not in jail.

Mr. Rizvi himself faces 180 court docket circumstances, and for months at a time he remained locked up in his workplace, sleeping in a small nook mattress, as he risked arrest if he ventured out. He walks with a cane due to a bullet wound he obtained whereas protesting a navy dictator within the late Eighties.

“We and other like-minded parties have boycotted this election,” Mr. Rizvi stated in a digital information convention on Thursday, asserting a brand new strike to start on Saturday. “The political parties and the people of the country have already understood that this election is going to be a rehearsal of the anarchy of Awami League. It’s going to be a one-sided election.”

Obaidul Quader, normal secretary of the Awami League, stated it regretted the principle opposition’s absence.

“Had B.N.P. been there,” he added, “the election would have been more competitive.”