Former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou to Go to China

As tensions fester between China and Taiwan, one elder politician from the island democracy is getting an effusive welcome on the mainland: Ma Ying-jeou, a former president.

Mr. Ma’s 11-day journey throughout China, which was set to start on Monday, comes at a fraught time. Beijing and Taipei have been in dispute over two Chinese language fishermen who died whereas making an attempt to flee a Taiwanese coast guard vessel in February, and China has sent its own coast guard ships near a Taiwanese-controlled island close to the place the lads died.

Taiwanese officers anticipate China to accentuate its navy intimidation as soon as the island’s subsequent president, Lai Ching-te, takes workplace on Might 20. His Democratic Progressive Get together rejects Beijing’s declare that Taiwan is a part of China, and Chinese language officers significantly dislike Mr. Lai, typically citing his 2017 description of himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan’s independence.”

However, China’s heat therapy of Mr. Ma, 73, Taiwan’s president from 2008 to 2016, appears a option to emphasize that Beijing will maintain an open door for politicians who favor nearer ties and settle for its situations for talks.

“Beijing’s policy toward Taiwan will definitely be using more of both a gentle touch but also a hard fist,” Chang Wu-yue, a professor on the Graduate Institute of China Research of Tamkang College in Taiwan, stated in an interview about Mr. Ma’s go to.

Officers from Mr. Ma’s Nationalist Get together have hinted that later in his journey, he might meet with China’s prime chief, Xi Jinping. That might echo groundbreaking talks that the two held in 2015. China has frozen high-level official contacts since Taiwan’s present president, Tsai Ing-wen, took workplace in 2016. She and the president-elect, Mr. Lai, belong to the identical occasion, often identified by its initials, D.P.P.

Mr. Lai has stated that there shall be no drastic change in Taiwan’s standing, and that he needs talks with China. However his occasion rejects Beijing’s situations for official talks, especially a formula under which each side accepts there is “one China,” even when they differ on what which means. The Democratic Progressives name {that a} rhetorical entice to advance China’s declare over Taiwan.

Nationalist Get together officers argue that they assist Taiwan by speaking to senior Chinese language officers.

“What if an accident happens? There’s no dialogue, no communication channel, between the D.P.P. government and the Communist government in China,” Sean Lien, a vice chairman of the Nationalist Get together, stated in an interview earlier than Mr. Ma’s journey. “The fact that he’s visiting China in early April, and probably will meet with Xi Jinping — I actually think that will help reduce the mounting tensions between Taiwan and mainland China.”

For Mr. Xi, a gathering with Mr. Ma could also be a approach of making an attempt to point out Chinese language people who Taiwan isn’t slipping irretrievably past hope of unification.

“For Beijing, it’s in Xi’s interest to show that time is on mainland China’s side, and maybe he can spin a meeting with Ma — if it happens — to convey that narrative to the domestic audience,” stated Bonnie S. Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program on the German Marshall Fund of the US. “That might ease some of the pressure that is rising internally.”

Partly, Mr. Ma’s journey is one other transfer within the contest between his Nationalist Get together and Mr. Lai’s incoming administration.

Mr. Lai won 40 percent of the presidential vote, prevailing in a three-way race. However the Nationalists won the most seats within the legislative election. Each the Nationalists and Chinese officials have stated that these outcomes confirmed that Mr. Lai doesn’t characterize mainstream Taiwanese opinion, a message Beijing is more likely to amplify throughout Mr. Ma’s go to.

However Mr. Ma’s go to to China has dangers for his occasion. He represents a wing of the Nationalists dedicated to Taiwan’s reconciliation with Beijing as a part of one Chinese language nation, an concept that different sectors of his occasion, and Taiwanese voters, are cautious of. Within the ultimate days of Taiwan’s presidential race, the Nationalist candidate, Hou Yu-ih, distanced himself from Mr. Ma over feedback that the previous president made about Taiwan’s navy vulnerabilities.

“No matter how much you defend yourself, you can never fight a war with the mainland; you can never win,” Mr. Ma told Deutsche Welle. Unification with China might be acceptable to Taiwan, he added, if achieved peacefully and democratically.

In accordance with a ballot of Taiwanese folks by the Election Study Center of Nationwide Chengchi College in Taipei, about 1 p.c assist unification “as soon as possible.” Almost 90 p.c favor some model of Taiwan’s present ambiguous established order: self-ruling, separate from China, however wanting full formal independence.

The D.P.P. has accused Mr. Ma of promoting out Taiwanese pursuits by going to China.

“The Chinese Communists are trying to use Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to frame the terms for political discussion on both sides of the Taiwan Strait,” Wang Ting-yu, a Democratic Progressive lawmaker, stated in an interview. Mr. Ma doesn’t characterize mainstream views inside his personal occasion, Mr. Wang stated: “He has lost the mandate of public opinion.”

As president, Mr. Ma expanded financial ties with China, together with tourism. However his plans for a extra formidable commerce pact ran aground in 2014 after protesters occupied Taiwan’s legislature, arguing that the settlement would undermine Taiwan’s financial autonomy.

Mr. Ma first visited China final yr, although he didn’t meet with Mr. Xi. This time, he will lead a group of Taiwanese college students to Guangdong Province in southern China and to Shaanxi Province within the northwest, there to attend a ceremony honoring the Yellow Emperor, the mythic forefather of Han folks. Lastly, they’ll go to Beijing, the place the assembly with Mr. Xi might happen.

Taiwan’s Nationalist Get together issued a statement defending Mr. Ma’s journey and expressing “hope that this visit will contribute to cross-strait peace and stability.” It additionally famous that Mr. Ma not held any senior posts within the occasion.

“They are setting up some protection,” stated Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, an affiliate professor at Sam Houston State College in Texas who research Taiwanese politics. “If anything goes wrong in Beijing, or Ma Ying-jeou mentions something unacceptable to the Taiwanese people, the party will indicate that they are not with Ma Ying-jeou on that.”