There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.
The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The dollar bounced back on Friday after Fed chair Warsh’s more hawkish communique at Jackson Hole. And that is pretty much setting the tone for major currencies as we look to the new week.
In the case of EUR/USD, the drop sees the pair fall back close to the 100-day moving average of 1.1570. So, that will act as more of a floor to price action for the session ahead. The expiries above might help to play a role in terms of limiting gains perhaps, with little else to work with in European trading later.
So as long as the dollar isn’t finding any further legs to run, the levels above are likely to keep things more in check for EUR/USD before the expiries roll off.
But as things stand, dollar sentiment is still the number one key driver with Fed odds for a September move now sitting closer to a coin flip.
Besides that, just be wary of month-end shenanigans that could crop up and keep things a bit messy later today too. From earlier: Heads up: Month-end flows might factor into play in the day ahead
Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 159.65 level. But as mentioned many times before, expiries for the currency pair are not likely to be of much influence/impact considering the current circumstance.
It’s all about intervention risks at the moment. With USD/JPY rising back up to near 160, that is once again bordering on testing the limits of Tokyo/Washington officials. So, that remains the bigger consideration in affecting USD/JPY price action more than anything else.
For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.
