Markets:
- S&P 500 up 0.1%
- WTI crude oil up $1.72 to $96.11
- Gold down $31 to $4676
- US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.337%
- AUD leads, CHF lags
It’s a huge week for central bank decisions and earnings along with the Iran war but that led to something of a paralyzed market on Monday. Trump was unusually quiet and so were the leaks around the war.
On the weekend, we learned that Iran had delivered some proposals about ending the war, then talking about the nuclear program. Virtually all the reports say it’s unlikely to be accepted by the US and Trump today met in the Situation Room with his security team. So far, we haven’t heard from him but the White House did say there were discussions and teased we could be hearing from Trump.
So we wait to see what he will do next as US forces amass in the Middle East. Iran has taken a tough line publicly but we don’t know what’s happening behind the scenes and the overall market is relatively sanguine with the tech market virtually indifferent as it continues to bid up chip names on AI enthusiasm.
The oil market chopped higher but remained within the range of last Thursday-Friday while yields grinded higher.
In FX, we await the Bank of Japan decision. USD/JPY slipped in Asia and Europe but recovered in the US on broader USD selling. The commodity currencies were well bid as they’re increasingly acting like safe havens in the war. The Canadian sovereign wealth announcement appeared to be well received but tomorrow’s budget update was teased by Carney as something Canadians would like (i.e. giveaways).
In terms of names, Micron, Nvidia, Intel, Palo Alto Networks and healthcare names were among the leaders. Dominoes Pizza and Dollar Tree were the S&P 500 laggards.
