Mexican voters were awaiting on Sunday the results of an election that was groundbreaking on several fronts: It was set to be the largest race in the country’s history, it has been among the most violent in recent memory, and it will likely put a woman into the presidency for the first time ever.
The two main contenders, who have largely split the electorate between them, according to polls, are women. The front-runner is Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist representing the ruling party and its allies. Her closest competitor is Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman on a ticket that includes a collection of opposition parties.
Ms. Sheinbaum had a double-digit lead in the polls for months, but the opposition argued that those numbers underestimated the true support for Ms. Gálvez. In an interview, she said that “there is an anti-system vote,” and that if Mexicans turned out in force on Sunday, “we will win.”
“She’s in the mind-set where she’s ahead by 30 points,” Ms. Gálvez said of Ms. Sheinbaum. “But she’s going to have the surprise of her life.”
The contest showcases the immense strides in Mexico’s politics made in recent years by women, who weren’t even allowed to vote in the country until 1953. Both the top candidates come with considerable experience: Ms. Gálvez was a senator, and Ms. Sheinbaum governed the capital, one of the largest cities in the hemisphere.
“For the first time in 200 years of the republic, we women will arrive at the highest distinction our people can give us: the presidency of Mexico,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.
Nearly 99 million voters were expected to cast their ballots for more than 20,000 local, state and congressional posts, as well as the presidency — the largest turnout and seats up for grabs in Mexico’s history.
Yet much of the race has focused on a figure who was not on the ballot but who still loomed large: the powerful current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Mr. López Obrador has been a fixture of Mexican politics for decades, running for president in all three of the previous elections before finally winning in a landslide in 2018.
While broadly popular, Mr. López Obrador has been a polarizing figure, eliciting adulation from die-hard fans and vitriol from critics. His administration doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to help bring millions out of poverty. The administration also empowered the military and pursued measures that many warned would weaken democratic institutions.
Mr. López Obrador’s dominance upended establishment politics, prompting three parties — from the right, center and left — to form an uneasy union that backed Ms. Gálvez.
Ms. Sheinbaum appealed to voters mainly by promising to continue Mr. López Obrador’s legacy. Ms. Gálvez cast herself as an alternative for those unhappy with his leadership, vowing to reverse many of Mr. López Obrador’s policies.
“The way this election has played out is a testament to the impact López Obrador has had on Mexican politics,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst. “He is the center around which political identities and political positions are defined.”
On Sunday in Tepetitán, a small town in Tabasco State, known as the birthplace of Mr. López Obrador and as a bastion of his supporters, two voters emerged from their polling station with a sense of optimism. Both Teutila Gallego Salvador, 71, and Gloria Maria Rodríguez, 78, had cast ballots for Ms. Sheinbaum.
“We love her — we want her to work like Obrador,” Ms. Rodríguez said. “We want a president like Obrador.”
In the capital, Carlos Ortiz, 57, rolled into the street in his wheelchair after casting his vote. A municipal official, Mr. Ortiz voted against the ruling party.
“I want everything to change, I don’t want a country on fire anymore,” he said, recalling the dozens of local candidates who were killed in recent months. “The president is completely insane. He has no idea what he’s doing.”
That is why his vote went to Ms. Gálvez, Mr. Ortiz said, as well as to Santiago Taboada Cortina, the opposition’s candidate for mayor of Mexico City.
Irregularities marred the voting in some parts of the country. In Tlapanalá, a town in Puebla state, armed men entered a polling place in a school and stole several hundred ballots. “They threatened to shoot the officials if they did anything,” Delia Pale Tepetla, a local electoral official, told reporters.
The governor of Querétaro state, Mauricio Kuri, confirmed at least four reported incidents. In two of those cases, unknown suspects tried to set polling places on fire — but were stopped, or people managed to quell the flames. Confirmed reports of ballot theft also emerged in other states like Michoacán.
Whoever succeeds Mr. López Obrador will face daunting challenges.
Cartel violence continues to torment the country, displacing people en masse and fueling one of the deadliest campaign cycles in recent Mexican history. During his tenure, Mr. López Obrador has directed government attention to addressing the drivers of violence instead of waging war on the criminal groups, a strategy he called “hugs not bullets.”
Ms. Gálvez slammed that approach.
“Enough of hugs for the criminals, and bullets for citizens,” she quipped on the campaign trail. She said she would pull the armed forces out of civilian activities and direct them to focus on combating organized crime, and also strengthen the police.
Ms. Sheinbaum said that she would continue to focus on the social causes of violence, but that she would address the problem of impunity and build up the National Guard.
On the economy, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the largest trading partner of the United States, benefiting from a recent shift in manufacturing away from China. The currency is so strong it has been labeled the “super peso.”
But there are also problems simmering. The federal deficit ballooned to around 6 percent this year, and Pemex, the national oil company, is operating under a mountain of debt, straining public finances.
“The fiscal risk we’re facing at the moment is something we haven’t seen for decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of México Evalúa, a public policy research group.
Another challenge involves the broad new powers granted to the armed forces, which have been tasked with running ports and airports, running an airline and building a railroad through the Mayan jungle. Ms. Sheinbaum has said “there is no militarization” of the country, while suggesting that she’s open to re-evaluating the military’s involvement in public enterprises.
In addition to the domestic challenges, the next president’s destiny will be intertwined with the outcome of the presidential election in the United States. A re-election victory for President Biden would provide continuity, but a return of Donald J. Trump to the White House is likely to be far less predictable.
Mr. Trump has promised to round up undocumented people on a vast scale and to deport them to their home countries, a vow that could affect millions of Mexicans living in the United States. And he has already threatened to slap 100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
Then there is the festering issue of fentanyl, which, the U.S. government says, cartels produce in Mexico using chemicals imported from China. Mr. Trump has suggested taking military action to combat the trade.
Handling such pressure from Washington, even in the form of incendiary campaign rhetoric, could prove challenging to Mexico’s next president.
Ms. Sheinbaum has said Mexico would have “good relations” with either Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden as president, and her campaign team has said it will continue to work to contain flows of migrants.
Ms. Gálvez said she, too, would be comfortable working with both men.
When asked how she would handle Mr. Trump, she said: “I’m accustomed to dealing with toxic masculinity.”
“It seems to me that Trump, at his core, is a pragmatic man,” she said, adding: “What he wants is to resolve the issues at the border and with fentanyl, and I think we can.”
James Wagner contributed reporting from Tepetitán, Mexico.
