Struggle in Ukraine Has Weakened Putin, C.I.A. Director Writes

The warfare in Ukraine has “quietly corroded” the facility of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, wrote in an essay revealed on Tuesday.

Whereas Mr. Putin’s grip on energy was unlikely to quickly weaken, Mr. Burns wrote in Foreign Affairs, disaffection had “gnawed away at the Russian leadership and the Russian people,” permitting the C.I.A. to recruit extra spies.

The company has made a collection movies geared toward recruiting Russian officers. The newest, released last week, encourages Russians to securely present data to the C.I.A. utilizing a safe browser on the darkish internet. The most recent video makes an attraction to their anger over corruption within the Russian authorities.

Whereas the U.S. authorities is not going to say what number of spies have been recruited with the movies, officers mentioned the company wouldn’t have continued to push them on Telegram and YouTube in the event that they weren’t efficient. Mr. Burns echoed this sentiment in his article.

“That undercurrent of disaffection is creating a once-in-a-generation recruiting opportunity for the C.I.A.,” he wrote. “We are not letting it go to waste.”

A part of Mr. Putin’s weak spot stems from his dealing with of the mutiny final yr by members of Russia’s strongest mercenary group. He appeared “detached and indecisive” within the face of the mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner mercenary group, Mr. Burns wrote.

Mr. Burns wrote that Mr. Putin “eventually settled his score with Prigozhin,” a reference to the mercenary leader’s death in a suspicious aircraft crash. Regardless of that, the critique of Russian management that Mr. Prigozhin put in entrance of the Russian individuals “will not soon disappear,” Mr. Burns wrote.

“For many in the Russian elite, the question was not so much whether the emperor had no clothes as why he was taking so long to get dressed,” Mr. Burns mentioned.

Russia has rebuilt its army industrial manufacturing, however its financial system has been deeply wounded by the warfare, he mentioned. And long run, Russia is “sealing its fate” to be a vassal of China, depending on Beijing for commerce and know-how.

Ukraine faces challenges within the warfare however has achieved dramatic outcomes. Russia’s efforts to modernize its army has been “hollowed out,” and 315,000 Russians have been killed or wounded, Mr. Burns wrote.

Ukraine has additionally suffered deep casualties, although Mr. Burns didn’t contact on that immediately. U.S. officers have struggled to estimate exactly what number of lives have been misplaced in Ukraine.

Mr. Putin’s technique is to proceed to grind down Ukraine and attempt to outlast Western assist. However Ukraine, Mr. Burns wrote, can “puncture Putin’s arrogance” by launching strikes deeper behind the hardened entrance traces of the battlefield. Previously, U.S. officers have frightened that Ukraine’s assaults may trigger Russia to escalate, even presumably by conducting a nuclear take a look at as a warning to Ukraine and the West.

Mr. Burns acknowledged that issues about nuclear escalation had been legitimate however recommended they shouldn’t be exaggerated.

“Putin might engage again in nuclear saber-rattling, and it would be foolish to dismiss escalatory risks entirely,” he wrote. “But it would be equally foolish to be unnecessarily intimidated by them.”

The important thing to Ukraine’s success, Mr. Burns wrote, was to proceed offering U.S. assist.

Congress is contemplating a brand new package deal of army assist, but it surely has develop into entangled with the politics of a border and immigration deal on Capitol Hill.

Slicing off Ukraine, Mr. Burns wrote, can be an enormous mistake.

“Keeping the arms flowing will put Ukraine in a stronger position if an opportunity for serious negotiations emerges,” Mr. Burns mentioned. “It offers a chance to ensure a long-term win for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; Ukraine could safeguard its sovereignty and rebuild, while Russia would be left to deal with the enduring costs of Putin’s folly.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ushered in a brand new period for the C.I.A., Mr. Burns wrote. He spoke of the early warning of the approaching invasion that intelligence companies supplied the Biden administration, Ukraine and allies.

However the brand new period, Mr. Burns mentioned, was additionally about taking benefits of recent applied sciences, together with synthetic intelligence. These have remodeled how the C.I.A. collects intelligence, permitting it to research data sooner and extra effectively.

“As much as the world is changing, espionage remains an interplay between humans and technology,” he wrote.

Whereas there will probably be secrets and techniques that solely people can gather, Mr. Burns continued, the C.I.A. should “blend mastery of emerging technologies with the people-to-people skills and individual daring that have always been at the heart of our profession.”