The Trump administration has lurched back into a war against Iran that had never really ended.
When the war started more than four months ago, U.S. forces targeted Iranian military bases, missile launchers, ships and naval facilities. Israel, fighting alongside the United States, hit leadership targets, hoping to bring down Iran’s hard-line government.
Their record of success has been mixed, at best. Israel killed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the leaders who succeeded him were even more hard-line. U.S. forces struck thousands of targets, but did not destroy Iran’s ability to control the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil typically flows.
For roughly 90 days beginning in April, an on-again-off-again cease-fire prevailed. And then it was over.
The United States now appears to be entering Round 2 of its military campaign. This round has a new focus — but not necessarily a clearer strategy.
Iran’s ability to control the strait, despite the pummeling its navy took, is by far the most important lesson of the first phase of the war. So it is no surprise that the Trump administration is focused on trying to loosen Iran’s grip on it.
Last Tuesday, in retaliation for attacks on tankers, President Trump ordered airstrikes on dozens of targets in Iran, including coastal radars, anti-ship missile launchers and a fleet of small Iranian attack boats.
After a short lull, the United States hit 140 military targets in the first of three consecutive days of heavy bombing this week.
U.S. forces carried out new rounds of attacks on Iran throughout Tuesday and resumed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, a strategy that showed some success in the earlier phase.
The strikes are intended to open the waterway to shipping. The purpose of the naval blockade is to put economic pressure on Iran by choking off its trade and to flex American military might.
Mr. Trump was quick to declare success.
“The Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran — and that is because of their lying, violent, malicious leadership, which is taking them down the path of TOTAL DESTRUCTION,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday morning.
But exactly what the U.S. military will do to enforce the blockade, and how far it will go to exert control of the strait, is not clear.
Round 1 of the war came at a high cost. Tehran has estimated that at least 3,500 Iranians have died in the war, including 175 at an elementary school. Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed. And the war has cost tens of billions of dollars already, and the new round could drive those financial costs up substantially.
A key question is whether Mr. Trump will consider an operation to take the strait’s Kharg Island, a key export hub for Iran’s oil.
Mr. Trump publicly mused about ordering the Marines to take control of the island during the first phase of the war, but ultimately abandoned those plans for fear of high U.S. casualties.
Such an operation would be a far bigger escalation than Mr. Trump has undertaken so far. But it would be difficult, and lives could be lost in either taking or holding the island.
The United States continues to have a fearsome arsenal in the region, including two aircraft carriers, and dozens of carrier- and land-based attack and surveillance planes.
“There are currently more than 20 U.S. Navy warships and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East,” Central Command said in a statement announcing the resumption of the blockade. “American forces remain vigilant, lethal, and ready.”
In the strikes last week, U.S. forces hit more than 170 Iranian military targets. In three consecutive days of heavy bombing this week, the United States has hit 140 military targets.
Analysts said the Trump administration was sending a pointed message to the government in Tehran that the United States was willing to broaden its mission again and hit sites that have both military and civilian uses.
But senior U.S. officials said the real focus of the current phase is undoubtedly the strait.
The U.S. military has hit some targets far from the strait, but they are also connected to the central mission. For example, U.S. forces last week appeared to hit a railway bridge in northeastern Iran more than 700 miles from the strait. Online video verified by The New York Times showed several people inspecting a crater at the site.
Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for Central Command, said in a phone interview that those targets included Iranian military logistics infrastructure targets that enabled Iran to direct weapons, munitions and other military supplies to the most contested area of the conflict.
So far, Mr. Trump has not ordered resumption of such an all-out conflict, in part because that could prompt Iran to target not only U.S. military bases in Gulf countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but also energy infrastructure in those nations.
Attacks on those facilities could send oil and natural gas prices skyrocketing even higher.
Senior officials said the goal of the new military campaign is to force Iran to allow tankers and other commercial cargo ships to pass freely through the strait, and ultimately to return to the bargaining table to resume nascent talks on more difficult, long-term issues like the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium.
Administration officials acknowledge that the military strategy is not without risks. Iran has shown it has an asymmetric advantage. Iranian forces do not have to hit every ship passing through the strait, or sink any of them. They only have to cause enough damage and issue enough threats to scare shipping companies and insurers.
This week, Iranian missiles struck two crude oil carriers that were transiting the southern part of the strait. The attack killed an Indian crew member. Another tanker, carrying liquefied natural gas, was also hit and caught fire near the Omani coast.
Senior U.S. officials said time remains on the American side as Iran’s economy collapses.
During the uneasy peace, Iran was able to get many of its tankers out, and to empty storage tanks that were overflowing with oil.
The resumed blockade will cause that oil to back up once more, and the money Iran has made from its oil exports will begin to dry up.
But the real question is: Can Iran’s hard-line leadership outlast Mr. Trump’s anxiety over rising oil prices?
