USDCAD sellers make a play beneath 1.4200 and the 100 hour MA. That is the chance degree now.

The bears took advantage. For the first time since June 15, the pair broke below its 100-hour moving average yesterday (see blue line on the chart below). During the Asian-Pacific session today, the price briefly retested and moved above that moving average, reaching 1.4209, but buyers could not sustain the move and the pair quickly rotated lower. In the European morning session, rallies again stalled near the 100-hour moving average and the natural resistance at 1.4200. That gave the sellers the go-ahead to push lower.

Since then, the pair has been grinding lower in a controlled fashion, reaching a session low of 1.4175.

From a technical perspective, the break below the 100-hour moving average neutralizes the short-term bullish bias, although the sellers still have work to do. The next key target is the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.4146. The pair has not traded below that moving average since May 29. A break and sustained move beneath that level would give the bears greater control and shift the bias more decisively to the downside.

For now, downside momentum remains limited, but sellers are finally trying to make a play. If they can keep the pair below 1.4200, the door opens for additional downside toward the 200-hour moving average and potentially beyond. Conversely, if buyers can reclaim 1.4200, traders will likely turn their attention back to the double-top highs near 1.4247 and another attempt at extending the broader uptrend.