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Warsh faces credibility questions. (0:17) Accenture earnings on tap. (1:24) Anthropic disables new AI models. (1:57)
The following is an abridged transcript:
It’s Fed week with a big known and a big unknown.
The known is that the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with markets pricing in roughly a 98% chance of no move.
The unknown is what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says in his first post-meeting press conference.
Warsh stressed Fed independence during his confirmation hearings. Still, it would defy credulity to think he got the nod from the White House without signaling some sympathy for lower rates – something that President Trump has been calling for his entire second term.
With inflation pressures tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stronger-than-expected recent jobs data, traders are currently pricing in a quarter-point hike by year-end.
Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokic argues that if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance, markets will view that as a sign of credibility.
However, he warns that a dovish or even neutral message could raise questions about whether monetary policy is becoming politically influenced.
Investors will also be watching the Fed’s dot plot – and whether Warsh adds his own dot or abstains.
Former officials have suggested Warsh may seek to overhaul the projections process, with some even speculating he could eventually eliminate the dot plot or other forms of forward guidance altogether.
Looking to the sparse earnings docket, Accenture (ACN) will be the highlight when it reports Thursday.
Wall Street expects EPS of $3.71 on revenue of about $18.8B.
Seeking Alpha analyst Cash Flow Venue, who has a Strong Buy rating on the stock, argues recent weakness has created a rare long-term opportunity.
“The business model is much more stable than Mr. Market seems to believe,” they wrote, adding that Accenture’s valuation and dividend yield support the case for further upside.
Also on the earnings calendar:
Canopy Growth (CGC) reports Monday.
CarMax (KMX) and Jabil (JBL) are due Tuesday.
Kroger (KR) joins Accenture on Thursday.
In the news this weekend
Anthropic (ANTHRO) has taken its newest AI models offline for all users after the U.S. government issued an export-control directive aimed at preventing foreign nationals from accessing them.
According to The Wall Street Journal, discussions between the Trump administration and Amazon (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy helped prompt the move.
The report said Jassy told Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that Amazon researchers were able to prompt Anthropic’s Fable 5 model into generating information that could potentially aid cyberattacks. Security researchers later validated the concerns, leading officials to restrict access to foreign nationals, governments and firms.
Rather than limit access to those groups, Anthropic said Friday it was disabling access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 altogether.
For income investors, Altria (MO), Coca-Cola (KO), Meta Platforms (META) and UnitedHealth (UNH) all go ex-dividend on Monday.
Altria pays out on July 10, Coca-Cola on July 1, Meta on June 25 and UnitedHealth on June 23.And finally…
With the World Cup kicking off this week, Seeking Alpha asked some of the world’s leading AI models a simple question: If every World Cup team were a stock, which stock would they be?
The answers were surprisingly good.
ChatGPT compared Germany to Nvidia (NVDA), saying it’s priced for dominance but carries enormous expectations. Claude went with France as Nvidia, calling it the undisputed market leader. And Gemini picked Spain as Nvidia, citing its speed, creativity and ability to dictate the direction of play.
Argentina was Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Brazil was Amazon (AMZN). England was Microsoft (MSFT). And the United States was either OpenAI (OPENAI) or Amazon (AMZN), depending on which AI you asked.
The good news is that one of these models is going to look brilliant in a month.
The bad news is that the others will have a lot of explaining to do.
