Why is crypto down? Because the Binance hack, two days of heavy ETF outflows and today’s US midterm elections hit an already weak market at once. An interesting chart is circulating on X: trader dealer.eth’s chart shows Bitcoin fell 15% to 51% after each of the last three midterms. Does history repeat itself?
Bitcoin is the strong one, and it is still down. BTC trades at $77,088, 7.8% lower than on October 1. Most large altcoins have lost two or three times that.
Solana is down 21.7% since the start of October, Dogecoin 21.3% and Cardano 23.3%. Ether and XRP are both off about 15%.
The total crypto market is worth $2.58 trillion, with $67.9 billion traded in the past 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 26. The election adds a new worry. dealer.eth’s numbers suggest the drop after a midterm can be deep, and fast.
So what is pushing prices lower, and which coins are taking the worst of it?
Altcoin profits came and went within a month.
In late September, recent buyers were selling most tokens at a profit, the biggest spike since December 2024.
A month later, most of them are back to selling at a loss, while bitcoin:native barely moved. pic.twitter.com/O5QYq6PkGI
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 29, 2026
Why Is Crypto Down This Week?
Four things at once. Each would weigh on the market alone; together, they leave buyers with little reason to step in.
- The Binance hack: $6.36 billion was stolen on October 29, and Elliptic says about $3.24 billion of it still sits in the hackers’ wallets, mostly in BTC and ETH. Every move of those coins is a possible sale.
- ETF outflows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on Friday and $398.6 million on Monday, and Ether funds lost $140 million on Monday, their sixth straight day of withdrawals.
- The midterms: Democrats are favored to take the House and likely the Senate, which would stall crypto bills in Congress for at least two years.
- Oil and rates: Brent is above $100 after another US strike on Iran, and futures traders now lean toward a Fed rate hike in December.
What Happened to Bitcoin After the Last Three Midterms?
It fell, then bottomed. dealer.eth scaled each post-election drop to today’s price:
- 2014: -48% in 71 days, which would mean about $40,500
- 2018: -51% in 39 days, about $38,400
- 2022: -15% in 13 days, about $66,300
Each of those lows turned out to be the bear market bottom, and Bitcoin was up 24%, 45% and 92% a year after the vote.
All three years were already deep bear markets, though, and 2022’s drop came with the collapse of FTX the same week. Three cases make a pattern worth watching, not a forecast.
Midterms are tomorrow
here’s what btc did after the last 3, scaled to today’s price:
2014: -48% in 71 days → ~$40.5K
2018: -51% in 39 days → ~$38.4K
2022: -15% in 13 days → ~$66.3Keach of those lows was the bear market bottom
a year after the election: +24% / +45% / +92% pic.twitter.com/d7X5myRsIO
— dealer.eth (@dealerdefi) November 2, 2026
Market Intelligence: Crypto Analyst Predicts Best Low-Cap Crypto
How Are the Major Cryptos Doing?
Badly, outside Bitcoin. Here is where the biggest coins stand since October 1 on Binance:
- ETH: $2,272, down 15.4%. It has lost less than BTC since the hack, 2.8% against 4.7%, but ETF selling hasn’t let up.
- XRP: $1.256, down 15.7%, and the only top-five coin up over 24 hours, by 0.6%
- BNB: $698, down 9.2%, and 6.2% since the hack of its own exchange
- Solana: $92.52, down 21.7%, the worst of the top six
- Dogecoin: $0.0744, down 21.3%
Further down the list, it gets worse. Sui has lost 24.7%, Chainlink 22.6% and Avalanche 22.3% since October 1. Hyperliquid’s HYPE held up through October, but it has dropped 10.3% since the hack, the most of any large coin.
Only TRON is close to flat, down 4.2% for the month and up 2.2% today.
Solana’s chart shows how far the damage goes. SOL lost its 200-day EMA, now at $98.11, and trades near $92, with the next swing low at $83.50, about 10% lower.
SOLUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView
Money is hiding in Bitcoin. Its share of the whole crypto market is now 59.9%, and that tends to rise when traders cut risk and sell altcoins first.
EXPLORE: Fed Meeting Today: Traders Price a 95% Hold and a 79% December Hike. What Does It Mean for Crypto?
Why Is Crypto Down And What Could Turn the Market Around?
Three things to watch this week:
- The results: the first polls close at 7pm ET (00:00 UTC). A clear result ends one source of doubt, whichever way it goes.
- ETF flows: a day of inflows into Bitcoin and Ether funds would be the first sign big buyers are back.
- The hacker’s wallets: if the $3.24 billion keeps sitting still, or more of it gets frozen, the threat of a sudden sale fades.
Until then, the answer to why is crypto down is simple: too many reasons to sell, and no one big enough to buy.
Market Intelligence: Crypto Security Analyst Recommends Best Anonymous Crypto Wallets
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and deep-dive guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council, and is dedicated to providing “information gain” that cuts through market hype to find real-world blockchain utility.
