The 2026 F1 Dutch GP marks the end of the summer break as the circus gets back in action. Unlike what has often been the norm, this time around, the second half of the season is going to feature more races than the first half.
What that also means is that the second half will have a more compressed calendar, where races come in thick and fast.
Hence, while that is the case, this weekend we’re heading to the F1 Dutch GP. This is the home race for Max Verstappen and has become one of the more eventful ones over the past few years.
The 2026 edition is, however, going to be the last time we race at this track for a while, as the 2027 calendar will not feature the race. With that being the case, and the Dutch GP being a sprint weekend this time around, what can we expect? Let’s take a look.
2026 F1 Dutch GP: Preview
Key Storylines
#1 The impact of rain
Amongst the many complaints that the drivers have had about the 2026 F1 cars, the biggest of them is the fear of the unknown when it comes to wet races. There hasn’t been much running in wet weather so far, but even in the limited time that the drivers have had, the verdict seems to be universal.
Drivers like Pierre Gasly and Max Verstappen have been quite vocal when it comes to talking about how much of a handful these cars can be in the rain.
This weekend, rain is expected to play a role on all 3 days, and it could cause serious concerns on a track like Zandvoort, which is very narrow compared to an average F1 circuit.
#2 The barrage of upgrades
While rain is expected to play a role, the other side of the coin is also quite interesting, as the F1 Dutch GP is going to be the first race after the summer break, and you’re going to see quite a few teams bring sizeable upgrades to the car.
We’ve seen upgrades play a massive role in flipping the pecking order on its head quite a few times already this season. It will be interesting to see what impact there would be in the 2026 F1 Dutch GP.
#3 The championship dynamics
The first 11 races of the season have put Kimi Antonelli in a place where he leads the championship by 50 points over his closest challenger, Lewis Hamilton. At the same time, if we look at his 2026 F1 season, ignoring the two races where reliability played a role, the driver has been on the podium in every other race.
There’s a level of consistency that he’s shown in 2026 that makes him a worthy title favorite.
At the same time, if 2025 has shown us something, it is the fact that things can flip on their head very quickly. Oscar Piastri in 2025 arguably had a season similar to what Kimi Antonelli has had in 2026.
He left the F1 Dutch GP with a 34-point lead over Lando Norris as well. But then we all saw what happened eventually. How good or bad does Kimi Antonelli look in the second half? Zandvoort will set the tone for sure.
Form Guide
In Form
Lando Norris dominated the F1 Hungarian GP in his revamped McLaren. If we go by word, he could have potentially challenged for the win at Spa as well.
The reigning F1 champion is more than 90 points behind the championship leader, and even though there are only 12 races left in the season, he would be looking at the F1 Dutch GP as the race where he starts rebuilding momentum.
Out of Form
On the flipside, for the first time in a while, Oscar Piastri does look a bit out of place at McLaren as he seems to be a step behind his teammate. The Australian’s 2025 F1 title campaign peaked at the Dutch GP last season and never reached those heights again.
This time around, he’s going back to the site of his last F1 win and does appear to be a step behind his teammate in the bigger scheme of things.
Driver with the biggest spotlight
It’s hard to look beyond Max Verstappen for this one. This is going to be his last F1 Dutch GP until and if the track makes a return to the calendar. The Red Bull driver has been brilliant around this track, with 3 wins and 2 runner-up finishes.
With rain in the air, it would be interesting to see how he does, as he would continue to be the dark horse when things get chaotic.
2026 F1 Dutch GP: Predictions
Who wins the race?
If rain plays spoilsport, we could see different contenders jump and chaos could ensue. However, if we just look at the track layout and the kind of form we saw from the teams heading into the summer break, McLaren does appear to be one team that could have things fall in line.
Lando Norris dominated this race in 2024, and if we end up having a more straightforward race weekend, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he wins this one.
Biggest surprise of the weekend? (Team)
Wet and soggy conditions are arguably the perfect conditions for teams with a smaller turbo. That’s precisely where a team like Ferrari could come into play. The car tends to fire up the tires better and earlier than its rivals, and part of it has to do with the power unit.
For the Dutch GP, Ferrari could be one of the contenders for the win, especially since the track layout should also play into their hands.
Biggest surprise of the weekend? (Driver)
Max Verstappen’s home race, unpredictable conditions, and a decent enough car do put the 4x F1 champion in a position where he could potentially capitalise. Heading into the second half of the season, Verstappen is more or less not a factor for the championship, and hence he is in a position where there’s nothing to lose.
That can make him a very dangerous adversary in a race, especially the F1 Dutch GP, where he would be extra motivated to put on a good show.
Biggest disappointment of the weekend? (Team)
This is going to be a tough one because the weather during the race weekend is very unpredictable. There are question marks over how the cars would perform on such a track as well, and you have to wonder what key characteristics shine through in that case.
If the weather plays a role and the team’s operational efficiency gets tested, we might see teams like Ferrari and McLaren struggle. However, if it is a straightforward weekend and we’re looking at most teams bringing upgrade packages except Williams, we might be looking at the Grove-based squad having a forgettable Dutch GP.
Biggest disappointment of the weekend? (Driver)
Franco Colapinto has shown flashes of promise this season, but at the same time, the kind of leap he was expected to make has not been there as well. The Argentine does have a tendency to crash a few times here and there, and we might be looking at him having one of those crash-ridden race weekends this time around.
Edited by Charanjot Singh Kohli
