FX choice expiries for 30 September 10am New York lower

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1300 level, with the strike sitting roughly 30 pips away from the spot price. The expiry size is meaningful and with price already relatively close, there may be some pull towards 1.1300 as the cut approaches. That especially if the dollar continues to push higher, with the selloff in Treasuries still underpinning the currency.

Just keep in mind though that the June low for EUR/USD at 1.1324 is a key technical consideration too. That is providing strong support on the daily chart, so sellers will have to decisively break that in trying to convince of a stronger push towards 1.1300.

But if EUR/USD pushes higher during the session ahead, the above expiry’s influence should diminish fairly quickly. That as the price movement will also reinforce a defense of the key technical level outlined at 1.1324.

Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 157.00 level with the spot price sitting less than 15 pips relative to the strike currently.

The combination of its size and proximity means 157.00 could act as a pinning level through the European session and into the cut later.

In other words, any modest downside move could see option-related flows help pull USD/JPY back towards the strike. Meanwhile, attempts to move significantly away from 157.00 may face some opposing hedging flows.

But as mentioned above, dollar sentiment is also key today with watchful eyes on the bond market and whether long-end yields will continue to break higher.

Besides that, month-end and quarter-end flows will also be a consideration that could inject further volatility to price movements as we navigate through the session ahead. That will be something to keep in mind just in case we do see exacerbated price movements across major pairs.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here and/or refer to the Q&A below.