A Bitcoin whale tracked by Arkham Intelligence deposited 438.37 BTC, worth $35.38 million, into Coinbase Prime early on October 28, 16 months after pulling 615.4 BTC out of the same custody service at an average price of $105,271. The deposit adds to a run of Bitcoin news about whales moving coins to exchanges, and this one comes with a $15 million paper loss.
It is a fitting end to a month that was supposed to be “Uptober.” Bitcoin trades at $81,445, up 2.2% in 24 hours but down 2.5% since October 1, with three days left.
So are whales really heading for the exits, and which dates could decide where Bitcoin goes from here?
Bitcoin Whale: $35M to Coinbase Prime
Whale bc1q9 deposited 438.37 BTC ($35.38M) overnight, 16 months after withdrawing 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody at an average price of $105,271.
BTC is $80,807. He’s down over $15M on the stack and still holds $14.31M. pic.twitter.com/ASH6nopd0x
— Arkham (@arkham) October 28, 2026
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Bitcoin News: Are Whales Sending BTC to Exchanges?
This one is, but the wider flows are mixed. The address bc1q9kaa…l77q had sat dormant since June 24, 2025, when it received 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody. On October 28 at 00:48 UTC, it sent 438.37 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit address and kept 177.03 BTC, which the blockchain confirms it still holds.
A deposit to an exchange is usually read as a step toward selling. The whale has not said why it moved, and Coinbase Prime also serves institutions that hedge or lend against their coins.
The market as a whole pulled the other way on Tuesday. CryptoQuant’s preliminary data showed a net 12,570 BTC, about $1.01 billion, leaving exchanges on October 27, a day after a net inflow of more than 7,000 BTC.
On Binance, the 30-day average of whale deposits has fallen from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion, analyst Darkfost noted, while retail deposits have been rising since September.
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October has been disappointing enough to threaten a pattern. Bitcoin opened the month at $83,624 on Binance, touched $87,220 on October 2, then lost the high ground and fell as low as $79,221 on October 24.
To finish the month green, it needs to close Saturday above $83,624, about 2.7% above the current price. If it doesn’t, 2026 will bring the first back-to-back losing Octobers in more than a decade, after October 2025 closed 3.9% lower on Binance.
Before 2025, Bitcoin’s only red Octobers since 2013 came in 2014 and 2018.
What Events Could Move Bitcoin’s Price Next?
The Federal Reserve comes first, today, and it is the Bitcoin news traders are waiting for. Then the next five weeks bring an options expiry, the monthly close, the U.S. midterms and another Fed meeting that markets already lean toward a hike.
Key dates for Bitcoin, October 28 to December 9, 2026. Sources: Federal Reserve, Polymarket, Deribit
- Fed decision, October 28: the statement lands at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30. After a 25 basis-point hike in September to 3.75%–4.00%, Polymarket traders give a hold 95% odds.
- PCE and earnings, October 29: September’s PCE inflation follows a hotter-than-expected 3.7% CPI print. Coinbase and Strategy report third-quarter results after the U.S. close.
- Options expiry, October 30: Deribit’s monthly Bitcoin options settle at 08:00 UTC. Open interest on that date stands at 135,452 BTC, about $11.04 billion and 34.4% of Deribit’s total, with a put-call ratio of 0.53 and max pain, the strike where option buyers lose the most, at $78,000.
- Midterms, November 3: control of Congress, and with it the pace of crypto legislation, is on the ballot.
- Fed, December 9: Polymarket puts a December hike at 76.5%.
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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Get Back to $83,624 Before the Month Ends?
It has the room, but not the momentum yet. Bitcoin sits just above its 50-day EMA at $80,833 after bouncing from $79,221 on Saturday, with the 200-day EMA far below at $76,443.
- The line for October: $83,624, the monthly open. A close above it turns the month green.
- Resistance: $84,898, the October 21 high that started last week’s drop.
- Support: $79,221, the October 24 low that held through three more dips this week.
BTCUSDT Chart 1D TradingView
| Outlook | Trigger | Level to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | A daily close above $83,624 | $84,898, the October 21 high |
| Holding pattern | Holding between $79,221 and $83,624 | A red October close above the 50-day EMA at $80,833 |
| Sell-off | A daily close below $79,221 | $76,443, the 200-day EMA |
One whale’s deposit won’t decide the month. Warsh’s tone this afternoon might. A hawkish press conference that sends Bitcoin back toward Friday’s $78,000 max pain would all but lock in a second red October; a calm one leaves $83,624 within reach.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and deep-dive guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council, and is dedicated to providing “information gain” that cuts through market hype to find real-world blockchain utility.
