Iran vows response past Mideast and goal monetary property; oil markets concern generational harm

President Donald Trump has said he’s contemplating “another little Epic Fury” after the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday.

The U.S. has already sent a third aircraft carrier and Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, and told allies in the region to prepare for a possible short but intense renewal of fighting, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The Iranian regime similarly stepped up its threats on how it would respond, seeking to deter an attack by threatening disproportionate and no-holds-barred retaliation.

On Saturday, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei warned Iran’s response would be “without any geographical limitations,” adding that the “data bank of targets should be updated so that the armed forces could hit all kinds of financial and non-financial assets.”

In recent weeks, Iran has warned undersea internet cables and data centers would be targets. The foiled attack on a British air base used by U.S. forces has also been attributed to Tehran.

And while North Koreans have been blamed for the $6.3 billion crypto heist at Binance, it shows how vulnerable such assets are to Iran, which is also adept at cyberattacks. At the same time, the Pentagon is investigating whether hackers hit freezers on U.S. military bases.

The RAND think tank pointed out last week that hostile Iranian activity “spans the globe,” with proxy Hezbollah in Latin America and reported plots against civilians in Europe.

“Unbound and bent on revenge, Iran is unlikely to be contained to just one corner of the globe,” analysts wrote, arguing that the least bad option would be for the U.S. to continue its naval blockade and not launch new attacks.

Diplomacy is ongoing with the U.S. and Iran exchanging messages via intermediaries, but neither side has budged from their initial demands, dampening hopes for a breakthrough in the next few days.

Given the hardened rhetoric from the regime with threats of unrestricted retaliation, experts now detect a change in Iran’s tactics against the U.S. and see greater odds of the war returning.

For Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group, the most important development was the message from Khamenei.

“This language suggests a further evolution in Iran’s military strategy,” he posted on X on Saturday. “Since the beginning of the war, Tehran has increasingly moved away from its traditional emphasis on proportionate response and retaliation toward a more offensive approach aimed at imposing costs on adversaries. The latest statements appear to take this logic a step further.”

Azizi also cited remarks from another top official who indicated Iran could stage a preemptive strike if preparations for hostile action were confirmed. In addition, Khamenei insisted Iran would determine when and how any renewed conflict ends.

Iran is also wary of further diplomatic efforts, especially since previous attacks came even in the middle of talks with the U.S. early this year and last summer.

“Iran appears increasingly determined to prevent a repetition of previous scenarios in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed military conflict,” Azizi added. “From Tehran’s perspective, the objective is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington would have to reconsider the option altogether.”

Meanwhile, Iran still has thousands of missiles and drones in its arsenal that can inflict catastrophic damage to its neighbors in the Persian Gulf area.

That’s as stockpiles of U.S. interceptors have already been depleted to critically low levels, while newer Iranian missiles has demonstrated the ability to evade air-defense systems.

Considering how much damage the region’s energy infrastructure sustained earlier in the war, it can’t absorb another round of fighting, according to Amir Handjani is a board member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Indeed, even U.S. military bases across the Middle East have been heavily damaged by Iranian drones and missiles.

“Gulf producers spent five decades persuading the world that their supply could withstand regional wars. Eight months of fighting on two fronts have badly weakened that case. A negotiated end to the war would give the region time to rebuild it,” Handjani wrote.

“Another round, on top of the Saudi-Houthi war, would leave damage to infrastructure and to importers’ confidence that markets are likely to carry for a generation.”